2020-2-28 18:20 |
Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin does not believe the notion that the occurrence of some events or price models can accurately predict whether the bitcoin price will go up or down in the future.
In a recent tweet, Vitalik took a shot at articles that proposed that the coronavirus was bullish for bitcoin (which has obviously not been the case) and also the acclaimed stock-to-flow model created by analyst PlanB.
Vitalik Buterin Takes Aim At BTC Price PredictionsThe recent market downturn has seen bitcoin dropping to $8,800 after topping $10,500 just a few weeks ago. This downward spiral has come as the coronavirus menace continues to spread across many countries in the world.
Some major publications were suggesting that this epidemic could fuel the bitcoin price to new heights, but the situation has unfolded contrary to what many expected. Buterin is now espousing the view that 95% of such kinds of articles are basically “post-hoc rationalized bullshit.”
Your daily reminder that 95%+ of articles of the form "event X will make crypto go (up | down)" are post-hoc rationalized bullshit. pic.twitter.com/KBQps4MF5H
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) February 27, 2020The Ethereum wunderkind further noted that hoping for disasters to turn to potential catalysts for crypto prices is “just creepy.”
Stock-To-Flow Model Is “Part Of The 95%”, Says ButerinThe stock-to-flow model has been touted as one of the most accurate models that predict bitcoin prices. This model is mainly based on bitcoin’s scarcity. In the past, there has been a clear correlation between the top coin’s price and its stock-to-flow ratio.
This price model designed by PlanB has quickly become a favorite as it says that bitcoin is still on course to reaching $100,000 before December 2021. PlanB explained that a massive bull run will start after the upcoming halving which will push the price to the $100k level.
However, Vitalik believes this model is lacking in credibility. When asked by analyst Pierre Rochard whether the stock-to-flow model lies in the 5% that is not ‘rationalized bullshit’, he replied:
“Nah that stuff is part of the 95%.”
Notably, Vitalik is not the first person to criticize the model. Sometime in November last year, Charlie Morris from Byte Tree analytics firm argued that while the S2F model is a nice idea, bitcoin attaining a market cap of trillion dollars -like suggested by PlanB- hinges on mass adoption and the network activity. Morris also noted that the S2F model focuses on the supply side while ignoring the demand side, essentially making it flawed en masse.
Analyst Alex Kruger is also not a fan of the S2F model. For his part, he said:
“The Stock to Flow model is to bulls, what the Tether Manipulation paper is to bears. Both based on fancy looking statistical models (more so the latter). Both are flawed. Doubt whoever believes in these extremes will change their minds. The mind believes what it wants to believe.”
The jury is still out on who is right. We will have to wait until the end of 2021 to see whether the stock-to-flow model is factually correct or if we should toss it away.
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