Early May Update: Technicals

XTZBTC on daily looks similar to a lot of other altcoin charts: crumbling through the support zones. Entering in XTZ right now would be foolish as the price still looks for a firm bottom after penetrating a solid defense line at 19652 sats. XTZ is levitating around 18k satoshis right now with paltry volume, rendering a pull upwards as a slim probability.

Considering that market is completely focused on bitcoin’s fight with the $6k height, altcoins are rotting on the racks and waiting for their season to commence. While that wait goes on, XTZ and other altcoins slowly lose value to BTC and go back to their all time lows. Entering XTZ right now would be synonymous to catching a knife as there seems to be a lot of room to travel downwards before hitting the support and rebound zones.

Below is our long-term forecast where we cover general market movements and sentiment shifts before delving deeper into the specific predictions for XTZ.

Tezos is a novel blockchain, another “Ethereum killer” that was first proposed in a paper released in Aug. 2014 with more specifics announced in a whitepaper released in Sept. 2014. The Tezos blockchain is designed with a focus on on-chain governance, allowing token holders to vote for proposed changes to functionality in order to avoid forking the network.

In 2015 the founders, Kathleen and Arthur Breitman established a company called Dynamic Ledger Solutions which was responsible for writing the initial code for Tezos. At the core of this codebase is a self-amending protocol, a system to formalize proposing, voting for, and implementing changes to the functionality of the network. Once a proposal has been made holders of Tezos (XTZ) tokens are able to vote with a weighting of one vote per token.

Tezos blockchain uses a modified version of a delegated proof-of-stake (DPoS) system where stakers, called bakers within the network, can lock up their tokens in exchange for the ability to validate blocks. In Tezos more liquid DPoS system users are able to “delegate” tokens to bakers without transferring ownership. Rewards for validating blocks are distributed to bakers in the form of new XTZ tokens with a proportional amount of the reward distributed to wallets that have delegated tokens to the baker. This enables smaller token holders to participate in the validation (and reward) process if they hold less than the required amount to become a full baker.

Tezos follows a path of radical decentralization which in essence means that they don’t have anything official – no roadmap, no leaders, no marketing, no central point for anything we are accustomed to from traditional markets.

The downfall of altcoins that were mainstream media darlings at the start of the year, XTZ among them, can be attributed, in part, to new, naive investors getting scared off once the bear market kicked in with a vengeance. Every resurgence of bitcoin in recent period, was met with the, for the most part, weakened ability of altcoins to rally with it.

Reason for that can be novice investors learning from their mistakes, while smart money that was previously watching from the sidelines has begun to enter into bitcoin.

These entities weren’t about to buy BTC when it was trading at an all-time high, but they’ll take a look now, having missed the boat the first time around. None of them, it seems, are interested in altcoins however, despite the fact that many are trading at a 5x discount. Institutional investors may be cautious, but they’re not foolish.

You can also check out our ICX Price prediction.

Some altcoins will continue to have some speculative value for the foreseeable future. But just like the now infamous tulips, the hysteria will eventually subside. We are already witnessing the first phases of that slide and even though most of the bag holders react emotionally to articles that criticize their coins, these observations are not opinionated but based on the developments on the market. You better start emotionally detaching yourself from your “great sounding” coin because if goes nowhere, ideas are worthless without execution and real users that see value in the project.

2018 was a very interesting year overall for the broader DLT community, “ICO projects” came and burst in a spectacular, fireworks similar fashion.

While the mass death of barely-alive-in-the-first-place projects causes some uncertainty and skepticism among the newcomers, it is something veterans and pioneers of this space have been longing for.

In order for DLT to become established, we need quality over quantity, we need convergence on standards and consolidation of communities to bring to life what we’ve been working on for years. With less noise, 2019 will act as a Darwinian selection mechanism, much like that of which the IT companies post-dotCom Bubble experienced.

This is a good thing and absolutely necessary for the real maturation of the space.

XTZ, as the rest of the market, is tied at the hip of bitcoin’s price action. If bitcoin embarks on another bull run, XTZ can hope for one as well. Since that is very unlikely, don’t expect much to change for XTZ price-wise in this year. So 2019 will be a year of boring sideways action with minor bitcoin ignited jumps and slumps.

In general:

The main currency in cryptocurrency markets is Bitcoin and given this, altcoins tend to fuel Bitcoin runs and Bitcoin tends to do the same in return. Given this relationship, Bitcoin price movements (or lack thereof) tend to effect altcoin prices.

When Bitcoin goes up swiftly, it will likely:

In cases when Bitcoin plunges, it will likely:

When Bitcoin moves sideways, it will likely:

To summarize, Bitcoin is the focal point of the crypto market in many ways, and with BTC trading pairs on every exchange, the gravity of Bitcoin is hard to evade.

Overall, the price change of any altcoin token is explained by the dynamics of the bitcoin-influenced market. However, there are also fundamental reasons for the individual token rise and fall in price, which can be pinned down to a big tech upgrade or more often, big partnership.

The majority of projects will fail — some startups are created just to gather funds and disappear, some would not handle the competition, but most are just ideas that look good on paper, but in reality, are useless for the market. 

Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum said:

“There are some good ideas, there are a lot of very bad ideas, and there are a lot of very, very bad ideas, and quite a few scams as well”

However, not all projects have the same chance of failing (risk), nor do they have the same potential upside (reward).

As a result of ICO teams’ incompetence and lack of integrity, fueled by basic human instinct that is greed and crypto investors’ naivety, over 95% of successful ICOs and cryptocurrency projects will fail and their investors will lose money. The other 5% of projects will become the new Apple, Google or Alibaba in the cryptoindustry. Will XTZ be among those 5%?

It stands a good chance of doing so.

Due to the scalability, problems with smart contracts and formal verification plaguing Ethereum, Tezos has a great opportunity to become the dominant chain in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Through it’s self amending protocol, Tezos will be able to upgrade and evolve over time which is a strong characteristic of a 3rd generation blockchain. However, when we consider that even Ethereum is a highly experimental technology, Tezos’ completely unproven approach to blockchain and protocol development is a double-edge sword.

Tezos, as a project, is also extremely well-funded from the Tezos Foundation which is sitting on a pot of nearly $500 million according to recent disclosures back in October 2018.

History has shown that truly innovative technology always takes longer to develop, costs more to fund, and is frequently doubted before officially coming to market. Despite XTZ having been around for quite some time (~2 years, or 200 years in crypto-years), the innovative efforts and challenges Tezos is taking head on are easily some of the biggest in the crypto world. Patience is a virtue…

However, before we can expect Tezos to see large adoption, it’s fair to say the broader crypto world will need to see some adoption of its own. It’ll take time, an effective marketing campaign, greater awareness, further development, and meaningful partnerships to exist before one can expect a ramp in adoption.

This makes Tezos one of the most intriguing projects to have in your portfolio – the upside is huge but the risk is even bigger. Investment in XTZ makes sense only on a very long time scale and proper expectation management – it could easily end ingloriously.

All of this summed up means one thing: XTZ might live through couple of orchestrated and, for a regular trader, completely unpredictable pumps but the majority of time will be murky sideways trading with small volume and no significant interest from the market.

Price will heavily depend on what BTC will do and since many analysts think BTC will not be making big moves in this year, it is hard to expect XTZ will do them either. The price will probably stagnate and record slow-moving depreciation or appreciation depending on the team activity, potential technological breakthrough or high-level partnership.

With the market being completely unpredictable, forecasting the cryptocurrency price is really more of a gamble and luck rather than a data driven guesstimate.

How is XVG Future looking like?

Let’s throw a glance at the eminent publications and personalities, and their predictions regarding the XTZ price, which will give us another point of view to consider:

Cryptoground.com is cryptocurrecy prediction algorithm that is moderately to overly bullish on most of coins, similarly on XTZ token as well. They forecast XTZ to climb up to $1.88 per token by EOY, which means a 4x increase in comparison to the current price.

Walletinvestor is a popular website that does technical analysis-based price predictions of various cryptocurrencies and traditionally has a skeptical outlook for most coins, but especially for XTZ. According to them, XTZ is expected to sink by almost 7x – from the current $0.45 to $0.07 by the end of the year.

Trading beasts is on a diametrically opposite side of Walletinvestor and sees a much more bullish future for Tezos token. Their algo forecasts that XTZ can ascend to around $0.91 within a year which means it will essentially grow 2x in value in the next year.

Another crypto prediction algorithm that is most conservative in its approach of the 4 we enumerated here – DCP usually predicts price to hover around the same level as the current state, forecasting a twofold increase or reduction for certain coins. XTZ is on the bullish side of their algo that sees it reaching $0.81 per coin by December 2019.

XTZ has been one of the biggest ICOs that collected a whopping $232 million during the 2017 crypto frenzy that spawned thousands of new coins. However, the road to somewhat stable crypto project was bumpy but unlike many other vaporware projects, XTZ team kept working on their product and the project seems to have some sort of future, despite facing some bad PR due to infighting and power struggles. In 2020, once the market wipes out the worthless projects, XTZ might jump into spotlight and top 10 coins ranks which could see the XTZ token price go up to its all time high levels of $11per coin.

If XTZ lives long enough to see 2023, that would mean the project stood the test of time, delivered the planned product and has a stable, growing user base. All of this would lead to the token being worth at least 10-100x than its hitherto all time high. That would mean XTZ would cost $110-1100 per coin.

Again, if XTZ lives long enough to see 2025, that would mean the project stood the test of time, delivered the planned product and has a stable, growing user base. All of this would lead to the token being worth at least 100x+ than its hitherto all time high. That would mean XTZ would cost $1100+ per coin.

Predicting prices of novel, highly volatile and risky asset classes is a thankless task – best answer is no one knows. Educated guess is that realistic XTZ price for the foreseeable future is somewhere between its current price and its all time high.

We don’t yet know which crypocurrencies will make it out of the crypto winter we’re wandering in right now. There are plenty of coins that stand a good chance of weathering the crypto storm and perhaps becoming more relevant as the market contracts and devours some of the weaker projects. However, there are even more of those projects who are already dead but no one noticed yet.

But, looking at things from this point in time and place, it’s reasonable to say that Tezos is standing in a better position than many of its competitors.

The post Tezos (XTZ) Price Prediction 2019 – Dropping Through Important Support Lines (Early May Update) appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.

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