2024-10-8 21:03 |
Bitcoin (BTC) kicked off October on a rather subdued note, surging approximately 2% on Monday to $63,718. Despite this decline, the cryptocurrency has demonstrated solid performance over the past month, recording a growth of around 10%.
That said, as investors ponder the future of Bitcoin, particularly given its current confinement within an expanding wedge pattern, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju remains optimistic. He asserts that the leading crypto asset is still well-positioned for upward momentum.
In a tweet on Monday, Young asserted, “Hey bears, I’m sorry, but #Bitcoin is still in the middle of the bull cycle.”
The pundit elaborated on this sentiment by discussing the relationship between market cap and realized cap, stating that “when market cap grows faster than realized cap, it may signal a bull market; the reverse could indicate a bear market.” He added that this trend is likely due to increased exchange trading during bullish phases and heightened on-chain OTC activity during bearish periods.
Young had earlier highlighted in May that Bitcoin was experiencing a bull cycle, emphasizing that its market cap was expanding at a rate outpacing its realized cap. This trend, he noted, typically sustains itself for about two years, reinforcing his belief in Bitcoin’s ongoing upward trajectory.
“If this pattern continues, the bull cycle might end by April 2025.” He had tweeted.
Elsewhere, Axel Adler, another analyst at CryptoQuant, added to this optimism, noting that “the market is preparing for the next upward trend.” In a detailed post, the pundit pointed to the Exchange Flow Multiple (30D/365D), which shows the ratio of short-term to long-term BTC inflows and outflows on exchanges. Notably, a declining Exchange Flow Multiple suggests that short-term trading is significantly lower than long-term accumulation, indicating decreased volatility and potential market stabilization.
“A low Exchange Flow Multiple may indicate that active investors are waiting for prices to stabilize before resuming active trading,” Adler noted, emphasizing that the pattern mirrors earlier bullish phases.
However, not all analysts share the same level of optimism. Analyst Maartum cautioned that Bitcoin’s open interest rate is currently too high, at just over $19 billion. He remarked that Bitcoin is currently in a high-risk zone, suggesting that “it’s not the best time for fresh long positions” due to the fragile nature of leveraged trading. According to him, a high Open Interest has historically preceded local price peaks, indicating a potential for volatility.
That said, amid the mixed signals, it remains to be seen whether this October, often referred to as “Uptober,” will uphold its reputation as a strong month for Bitcoin. Historically, the cryptocurrency has recorded average returns of about 24% and median returns of 28%. Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs if this pattern continues, approaching the $78,000 mark.
BTC traded at $63,803 at press time, reflecting a 1.92% surge over the past 24 hours.
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