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Supply Shock, predicting price by quantifying intent to buy and sell
IntroductionIn any market, price is driven by demand and supply. This is a fundamental.The most obvious way of seeing this is in the bid and asks between buyers and sellers. A more nuanced way would be to wave a magic wand and gauge the intent of investors before дальше »
2021-8-10 22:36
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Introducing the Difficulty Ribbon, signaling the best times to buy Bitcoin
Introducing the Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon. When the ribbon compresses, or flips negative, these are the best times to buy Bitcoin. The ribbon consists of simple moving averages on mining difficulty so we can easily see the rate of change in difficulty. дальше »
2019-8-2 19:59
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When did Bitcoin's investment era begin? A study using NVT.
For those familiar with NVT Ratio, the data from the early years comes off very skewed, sometimes written off as noisy rubbish data.To answer the mystery of early NVT moonage, I'll take us on a trip down memory lane and visit the transactional data of the early years.How дальше »
2019-4-13 04:05
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Experiments on Cumulative Destruction
Two approaches to bring bitcoin-days-destroyed into the price domainOkay, so this article is now well overdue given the recent price action. BTC never rests! The last few months have been very productive in terms of discovering new valuation metrics based on on-chain analytics. The recent proposals using coindays destroyed дальше »
2019-4-10 00:17
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NVT Signal, a new trading indicator to pick tops and bottoms
NVT Ratio is a new valuation indicator that I introduced last year based on network fundamentals, namely value flowing through the blockchain. I was delighted to find Dmitry Kalichki created a much more responsive variation which I've been calling NVT Signal. What is NVT Signal? Standard NVT Ratio is simply дальше »
2019-4-5 19:50
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Introducing NVT Ratio (Bitcoin's PE Ratio), use it to detect bubbles
Preface February of this year, I tweeted a chart that presented the idea of a PE ratio for Bitcoin, something I temporarily called MTV Ratio before my buddy Chris Burniske suggested the less confusing term of NVT Ratio (Network Value[1] to Transactions Ratio). Later in May, Chris was the дальше »
2019-4-5 19:50
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Segwit already making a difference to Bitcoin scaling [infographic]
Here's a sequel infographic to my last one showing the Bitcoin Network under congestion. After one month of Segwit activation, 4% of transactions on the Bitcoin Network is using the new protocol. дальше »
2019-4-5 19:50
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Determining the ideal block size for Bitcoin, a story of three graphs
One benefit of seeing congestion this early in Bitcoin’s life is we get a great set of data of the network under load. In this study, we’ll take a look at Bitcoin’s transactional data to see if it points to an ideal blocksize, if there is such a thing. дальше »
2019-4-5 19:50
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Using Google Trends to detect Bitcoin price bubbles, and best times to buy
I wrote previously that Google Trends on the search term “BTC USD” is a great way to track the growth of active Bitcoin users. The search “BTC USD” is a proxy for the engagement of active Bitcoin users as they check the daily price. In the chart above, the baseline дальше »
2019-4-5 19:50
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The 10,000 year view of Cryptocurrency [infographic]
Bankers say it's a Bubble. Technologist say it's Disruption. Students of history say it's the Dawn of the Digital Age. This is my 10,000 year view of cryptocurrency in one infographic. дальше »
2019-4-5 19:50
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My thoughts on Bitcoin's network congestion
Here's a wee chart below to illustrate my thoughts on Bitcoin's transactional network the last two years. The Bitcoin network hasn’t been able to keep up with peak transactional demand since 2016, since 2017 it hasn’t been able to keep up with the AVERAGE transactional demand. Meanwhile our дальше »
2019-4-5 19:50
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Bitcoin's scaling debate deadlock fueling an altcoin bubble [infographic]
I’ve put together this infographic to help explain the 8x bubble that altcoins has seen in the last two months. Two words: Scaling Debate. Bitcoin’s scaling deadlock has not resolved and transactions on its network are now at full capacity without a clear resolution in the near future. дальше »
2019-4-5 19:50
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Why does on-chain volume show an overly bearish picture of the 2018-2019 Bitcoin market?
Let's delve into a mystery of this 2018-2019 bear market that David Puell and Murad Mahmudov and I have been exploring for months... Why does on-chain volume look so bearish while many of our other (to be published) metrics tell a more positive story?Up to now, whenever you saw дальше »
2019-4-6 02:55
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Fees paid to Bitcoin miners by year
If the Bitcoin network was a payments startup this chart would track its annual sales. Total fees paid to miners by year: 2010: $3. 8k 2011: $33k 2012: $66k 2013: $2. 2m 2014: $2. дальше »
2019-4-5 16:40
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Utility is a red herring, look for organic store of value
This article was first tweeted in short form on 9th Jan 2019. Store of value properties is what gives crypto networks value, utility is overrated for the purposes of investment appreciation. дальше »
2019-4-5 18:31
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Why HODL?
Why HODL? It allows you to capture the gains of the market. Trading lets you beat it. In that zero-sum game, 10% of participants win, 90% lose. Are your skills in the top 10%? If not and you're still winning it's due to luck. Unfortunately being on the right side дальше »
2019-4-5 09:00
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Overheard in a chatroom: Forecasting vs predicting
I think of TA [technical analysis and charting that traders do] in exactly this forecast context. Veteran traders like Peter Brandt are forecasters. He's had decades of trading, he's removed much of his personal bias. He looks at chart setups more objectively. дальше »
2019-4-5 03:42
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When it's time to rebalance your crypto-assets in your portfolio
I think rebalancing a crypto portfolio to reduce exposure to a single crypto-asset is the most intuitive yet completely wrong move long term investors make. Maybe your portfolio starts off nice and balanced and may look something like this. дальше »
2019-4-5 04:02
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