2026-4-17 19:33 |
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $78,000 on Friday, reaching its highest level in over two months as a confirmed double-bottom breakout fueled momentum toward the $80,000 zone.
The rally followed Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under ceasefire terms, which triggered a broad risk-on move across equities and crypto. Yet analysts remain sharply divided on whether BTC can sustain the push through heavy overhead resistance.
Weekly Close Holds the Key to $80,000As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $77,922, just shy of the $80,000 psychological level last tested on January 31, 2026.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCryptoThe surge comes after reports that Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz completely, amid ongoing ceasefire terms.
𝗗𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗱 𝗝. 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝟬𝟵:𝟬𝟲 A𝗠 𝗘𝗦𝗧 𝟬𝟰.𝟭𝟳.𝟮𝟲
IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!
Against this backdrop, eyes remain peeled on whether the Bitcoin price can reclaim the $80,000 psychological level this weekend, potentially drawing tailwinds from resounding risk-on sentiment.
US Indices Perfrormance (DOW, S&P500, Nasdaq)Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC has maintained itself above the double-bottom formation top near $73,000, positioning price for a positive weekly close.
However, he cautioned that a similar setup in March ended with an upside wick and a subsequent rejection.
“Bitcoin’s progression on the Daily timeframe has been promising, enabling price to maintain itself above the Double Bottom formation top of ~$73,000… it is the upcoming Weekly Close that will be most important to watch for,” wrote Rekt Capital.
On the daily chart, BTC has flipped former resistance levels near $73,000 into support, with consecutive daily closes above prior breakdown zones.
If this behavior continues, it could confirm the breakout from a multi-week consolidation range.
#BTC
On the Daily timeframe, Bitcoin has been able to maintain itself above the blue level, downside wicking into it as if treating it as new support
More, Bitcoin has also been able to Daily Close above the black resistance as well, keeping it as support yesterday and also… https://t.co/pVNiBBGyks pic.twitter.com/jbNEE70R4B
Meanwhile, prediction market Kalshi now prices a roughly 40% chance that BTC hits $80,000 this month, but several key levels remain in focus for Q2.
Trader Ted Pillows identified $76,000 as the key reclaim level that could propel price into the $78,000 to $80,000 band.
“The key zone for Bitcoin here is $76,000 and a reclaim could push BTC towards the $78,000-$80,000 zone. This is where I’ll go short on Bitcoin,” wrote Ted.
Indeed, Bitcoin’s foray past $76,000 provided an entry for long positions, with a brief test of the $78,000 threshold on Friday catching many naysayers off guard. According to Coinglass data, nearly $100 million in short positions were liquidated in the last hour.
Total Liquidations. Source: Coinglass Bear Market Warnings Temper OptimismDespite the short-term bullish structure, Rekt Capital also flagged significant macro headwinds. He argued that for BTC to build sustained bullish momentum, it would need to reclaim $82,500 and break its multi-month series of lower highs.
#BTC
For Bitcoin to build renewed and sustained macro bullish momentum it would need to reclaim not just $82500 but also break its multi-month series of Lower Highs (Macro Downtrend)
History suggests neither of these technical milestones will happen and that the Bear Market…
History suggests neither milestone will happen, with roughly six months of bear market potentially remaining.
The 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), which tends to act as resistance during bear markets, sits directly in the current price path. The broader oil shock from the Hormuz crisis adds another layer of macro uncertainty.
BTC is also clustering beneath a macro triangle it broke down from months ago, a pattern that in 2014 resolved through distribution to the downside.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: Rekt Capital on XQCP Group echoed the caution, noting that derivatives desks still favor downside protection. The rally appears spot-driven and fragile rather than a structural trend change.
Ted Pillows separately disclosed plans to short BTC near the $79,000 to $80,000 zone, citing a pattern from the last two local tops where price took out the capitulation candle’s highs before reversing.
During the last 2 local tops, $BTC took out the highs of the capitulation candle.
If this happens again, Bitcoin will peak in the $79,000-$80,000 zone where I'm planning to go short. pic.twitter.com/UoNU80fNNQ
Meanwhile, multiple on-chain indicators have flashed mixed signals throughout April. CryptoQuant analyst Woo Mink Yu pointed to the Bitcoin Combined Market Index, or BCMI, which has dropped into the 0.2 to 0.3 range.
This zone has historically marked deep undervaluation.
“We are entering a ‘Value-Accumulation Zone.’ The data suggests the downside is becoming limited compared to the long-term upside. However, wait for price stabilisation to confirm the index’s bottom signal,” wrote Cryptoquant analyst Woominkyu.
Supporting the case for a healthier rally, separate CryptoQuant data showed that Binance open interest has plunged even as the price climbs.
Bitcoin Divergence: Price Rally Driven by Spot as Binance Open Interest Plunges
“A price rally built on low leverage significantly reduces the risk of sudden, severe liquidation cascades.” – By @CryptoOnchain pic.twitter.com/mwv60jBz4A
A rally built on spot demand rather than leverage significantly reduces the risk of sudden liquidation cascades.
Meanwhile, exchange inflows on Binance have fallen to 2020 levels, suggesting holders prefer to sit tight rather than sell into strength.
Still, a separate data point flagged roughly 11,000 BTC per hour moving to exchanges this week, the highest rate since December 2025.
Bitcoin Exchange Flow. Source: CryptoQuantLarge holders may be positioning to distribute if the rally extends further.
Earlier forecasts for April projected BTC reaching the mid-$70,000s by month’s end. Friday’s daily close will likely determine whether BTC’s breakout above $77,000 translates into a genuine push toward $80,000 or becomes another failed attempt in a broader bear market structure.
The post Can Bitcoin Reach $80,000 This Weekend as the Strait of Hormuz Opens? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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