In a newly released investor note, one of the oldest US investment banks H.C. Wainwright & Co. —established in 1868—is projecting substantial upswing for the Bitcoin price. According to the note, the institution has revised its previous Bitcoin price target for the end of 2025 from $145,000 to $225,000, underpinned by a confluence of historical trends, macroeconomic indicators, and emerging regulatory and institutional factors.

“We estimate BTC will reach a cycle high of $225,000 by YE2025,” stated the firm, referencing both market cycles and the potential for a more supportive digital-asset regulatory landscape in the United States in 2025 under a new administration.

H.C. Wainwright’s analysis highlights several pivotal forces propelling Bitcoin’s growth trajectory. One significant catalyst is the wider availability of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, a development that could unlock new waves of institutional capital. The firm also cites “accelerating institutional investor and corporate adoption” as a major contributor to its bullish outlook.

On top of that, the investment bank’s models assume an overall market backdrop that improves in tandem with global liquidity and that any regulatory overhang will abate. H.C. Wainwright is careful to note that the forecast is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, particularly measured by M2 money supply, which has trended downward since October.

Though projecting a lofty six-figure price by 2025, H.C. Wainwright acknowledged that Bitcoin’s path toward $225,000 is unlikely to be a smooth ride. In the report, the bank cautioned: “~20-30% drawdowns during bull markets are not uncommon […] We estimate BTC could retrace back down to the mid-$70,000 range in early 1Q25 before resuming its uptrend.”

They attribute these possible pullbacks to Bitcoin’s historical volatility and its correlation with global liquidity trends.

If Bitcoin reaches $225,000 per coin, H.C. Wainwright projects a total Bitcoin market capitalization of approximately $4.5 trillion—around 25% of gold’s current $18 trillion market cap. This scenario translates to a 113% increase over current levels. However, the note adds a striking scenario that is not yet factored into its core forecast:

“Our new 2025 price target does not factor in the potential for the US government to officially adopt BTC as a treasury reserve asset at the federal level next year. If implemented, we believe it is plausible that BTC could significantly exceed our base case price target.”

The institution’s analysis also extends to the broader crypto market. Historically, Bitcoin’s dominance (its share of total crypto market cap) tends to fall during market peaks, and it dipped into the low 40% range near the last bull cycle peak in November 2021.

Looking forward, H.C. Wainwright expects Bitcoin’s dominance to decline to 45% by the end of 2025, down from around 56% currently. Under that assumption, the firm sees the total crypto market swelling from $3.6 trillion today to approximately $10 trillion by year’s end 2025.

H.C. Wainwright’s coverage universe of publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies stands to benefit from the anticipated price surge. “If our predictions are correct, there is the potential for significant upward estimate revisions for our coverage universe over the course of next year.”

At press time, BTC traded at $96,221.

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