Bitcoin has been fairly unpredictable over the past few months.
In December, when the cryptocurrency fell under $7,000, a majority of analysts were expecting a retracement to the $5,000s, citing the existence of the ever-important 200-week moving average. And at the top near $10,000 established in mid-February, half of Crypto Twitter was convinced BTC was set to retake $14,000, then surge to fresh highs.
True to the nature of the age-old Warren Buffet quote, “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful,” BTC did the exact opposite of what the majority expected, rallying out of the December lows and crashing from the February highs.
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One fund manager, however, went against the grain. Su Zhu, CEO/CIO of Three Arrows Capital, remarked that BTC would likely end January around $9,000, 25% higher than the market price when he made that comment. He was right.
Now, he’s back, arguing that there’s a good likelihood Bitcoin hits $50,000 “relatively quickly.” Here’s why he thinks so.
Bitcoin Could Hit $50,000? What?
In a recent tweet, Su Zhu remarked that Bitcoin could rally to $50,000 “relatively quickly,” which would mark a 730% gain from the current price of $6,000.
As to why he thinks such explosive growth can take place in such a short amount of time, Su looked to the fact that several emerging markets are “now pricing in significant risk of sovereign defaults.” Su Zhu added that with the U.S. dollar set on a course for inflation “it will be hard to turn back from,” which has been corroborated by trends in the bond market.
All this gives the decentralized and disinflationary Bitcoin a chance to shine.
This is in theory the moment Bitcoiners have been waiting for
Several EM mkts are now pricing in significant risk of sovereign defaults
USD itself set on an inflationary course it will be hard to turn back from
If $BTC mkt holds these lvls, 50K relatively quickly is possible https://t.co/CSSXEuNGyd
— Su Zhu (@zhusu) March 18, 2020
This isn’t the only evidence suggesting Bitcoin will rally extremely high and extremely fast.
In March of 2019, PlanB — a pseudonymous institutional investor based in Europe that analyzes Bitcoin as a personal passion — released a famous article on Medium titled “Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity.”
The article contained the below image, which shows that Bitcoin’s market capitalization over time can be plotted on a logarithmic regression, which has an R squared of 95%, or extremely accurate in non-statistics lingo terms.
The model predicts that BTC will have a fair value of $55,000 to $100,000 — ten to twenty times the current value — after the halving due to the emission shock.
Featured Image from Shutterstock origin »
The majority, or $3.52 billion, of the profit stemmed from the firm’s financial gains on Bitcoin and gold, while the additional $1 billion came from operating profits.
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Special thanks to Jinglan Wang for review and feedback
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