XRP price may be stabilizing above recent lows, but underlying signals suggest the asset remains structurally vulnerable. While short-term price action shows marginal recovery, market analyst Ali Martinez argues that weakening network fundamentals, large-holder distribution, and fragile technical support indicate downside risk has not been neutralized. In his view, if these conditions persist, XRP could still face a sharp drawdown toward the $0.80 region, implying a potential 56% decline from current levels.

In a series of recent tweets, Martinez outlined multiple converging risks that could push XRP into a deeper decline. Central to his assessment is a visible deterioration in on-chain participation, which he views as an early warning signal for further downside. Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger have fallen sharply, dropping from roughly 46,000 to about 38,500 within a single week.

This contraction reflects reduced transactional engagement and softer organic demand, conditions that weaken price resilience during periods of broader market uncertainty. In practical terms, fewer active users translate into lower baseline buying pressure, making the asset more vulnerable to sell-side shocks.

Compounding this issue is a notable shift in whale behavior. Martinez highlights that large holders have offloaded more than 40 million XRP over the same timeframe. When high-conviction capital moves to the sell side, it alters supply dynamics quickly, especially in markets already experiencing muted retail participation. Whale distribution typically acts as a leading indicator of trend exhaustion, as concentrated supply entering the market absorbs demand that would otherwise support price stability. Together, declining network activity and whale selling form a reinforcing feedback loop that erodes confidence and increases downside exposure.

From a market structure standpoint, XRP’s technical setup remains precarious despite modest short-term gains. The asset is currently trading around $1.87, down 8.6% over the past month, even after recovering 0.3% in the last 24 hours and 1.1% over the past week. These incremental rebounds, however, have not altered the broader risk profile. According to Martinez, the $1.77 level represents a critical support zone that must hold to prevent deeper losses.

A decisive break below $1.77 would invalidate the current consolidation structure and expose XRP to its next meaningful support near $0.79–$0.80. This level is not arbitrary; it represents a historically significant demand zone where price previously stabilized after prolonged declines. If selling pressure from whales persists while on-chain activity remains subdued, the probability of testing this lower band increases substantially. In this scenario, the projected move would amount to a roughly 56% decline, aligning with Martinez’s risk assessment.

In sum, while XRP is not in freefall, the asset is operating on thin structural support. Until network activity recovers, whale behavior stabilizes, and key technical levels are decisively defended, XRP remains exposed to a high-impact downside scenario that investors cannot afford to ignore.

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