XRP, currently the fifth-largest cryptocurrency in the market, has mirrored the overall performance of digital assets over the past months, experiencing a significant retracement of nearly 50% from its all-time high of $3.65 earlier this year. 

Amid this volatility, a new artificial intelligence (AI) simulation model has produced price forecasts for the altcoin, offering investors a more detailed outlook for the coming year.

Market analyst Sam Daodu recently shared insights from a Monte Carlo simulation that explored XRP’s price trajectory in which 10,000 paths were generated to capture a comprehensive range of potential outcomes. 

The results offer statistical data such as mean, median, and percentiles, illustrating a probability distribution rather than relying on a single forecast.

Daodu reported that the simulation results reveal a spectrum of outcomes for XRP. The mean price across all 10,000 paths stands at approximately $2.78, indicating that, on average, the price is higher than its current levels. 

In contrast, the median price is $1.88, suggesting that half of the estimated outcomes fall below the $2 mark. This disparity between the mean and median highlights the skew in the distribution, where a few high projections inflate the average, while the median reflects where most scenarios likely land.

To identify a more probable pricing range, Daodu considered the 25th and 75th percentiles, which represent the central 50% of outcomes. According to the simulation, 25% of scenarios estimate XRP’s price below $1.04, while 75% indicate a price below $3.40. 

Notably, about 60% of scenarios position XRP’s price between $1.04 and $3.40 by the end of 2026, with an expected median hovering around $1.88.

The analysis also highlights the upper tail of the distribution, where the best-case outcomes sit. The 90th percentile indicates a price of about $5.90, meaning that roughly 10% of scenarios project end-of-year prices above this threshold. 

The expert asserts that achieving new all-time highs near $6 would require several positive developments, including sustained institutional inflows through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) of over $50 million daily throughout 2026, increased actual usage of XRP for cross-border payments by banks, and persistent regulatory clarity without major setbacks. 

On the other hand, the simulation doesn’t shy away from discussing downside risks. The lower 10% of outcomes reveal a potential drop below $0.59, suggesting a worrying 10% probability that XRP could lose more than 70% of its current value by 2026. 

Factors contributing to this bearish outlook could include regulatory setbacks, such as tougher restrictions on cryptocurrency custody or complications arising from recent settlements with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

Additionally, Daodu believes that decreased investor confidence in the altcoin resulting from unmet expectations related to XRP’s utility adoption could further depress prices. 

According to CoinGecko data, XRP is trading within the range expected to last till next year at $1.90, with a 2% drop in the 24-hour period.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

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