
2020-7-7 22:40 |
Monday saw the most significant one-day jump in the Shanghai Composite in five years. It closed up 5.7%, the most since the last bull market of 2015.
Leading the charge are Chinese financial stocks, which were amongst the best performers on the trading floors in Hong Kong and Shanghai.
Evolution of Chinese indexes CSI 300 and BI China H-share during 2020. Source: BloombergPlenty of market analysts are warning that the bull run shares similarities with the Chinese stock market bubble of 2015. Back then, the Chinese government openly encouraged retail investors to buy up stocks.
Why Are Asian Stocks Hot Now?Multiple factors explain the positive sentiment towards Asian stocks and Chinese ones in particular. The main drivers stem from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown that followed.
These incidents shook the trust of global investors in sectors considered stable until now, like tourism, airlines, and main street retailers.
Take a look at service and tourism-oriented economies, like Spain or Italy. They will likely be worse hit by the economic effects of the three-month lockdown than with the virus itself. Investors appear to be shifting their focus towards more production-oriented countries.
Also, countries that managed the pandemic sooner will likely recover faster from the devastating effects of lockdown. These countries will be in a better position after the Global Reset of 2020.
Evolution of daily cases of CIVD-19 in the United States. Source: Worldometers.The most apparent manifestation of this sentiment is in the United States. The virus still seems to be running wild as daily cases surge in July.
Uncertainty surrounding the American economy and its political leadership, as well as the Fed’s unrelenting dollar printing all add fuel to the fire. These factors lead investors to Asia for reliable bets.
A recent Nomura research paper notes:
“We see a number of catalysts that could drive Asia ex-Japan (AeJ) equities’ outperformance over U.S. equities in the near term,”
The firm added:
“Better COVID-19 trends and mobility data in economies/markets that dominate the AeJ index should translate into faster economic recovery vs the U.S.”
China: The New Financial Center of the WorldOne of the declared objectives of the Chinese government is to grow the size of its financial industry. A more ambitious one is to make Shanghai the epicenter of Asian trade. The ultimate goal, however, is to overcome New York between 2040 – 2050.
There’s a long way to go still, but Chinese regulators are slowly moving forward. The first step is opening up the stock market to a hungry group of global investors who are desperate to find good returns in a low-growth environment.
Recently, regulators in Beijing loosened rules on margin financing, enabling investors to punt with borrowed funds.
The FTSE China A50 index is trending up within an Ascending Channel formed since early April. Source: DailyFx.In a recent interview with Reuters, financial analyst Ma Ting Ting said:
“We expect regulators to continue to boost stock market activity and try to guide even more funding from banks and insurers into the stock market… The signal from the regulators is clear: They are pushing for the development of margin trading and short selling business in China.”
Another characteristic to bear in mind is that 99% of all investors in Chinese stock markets are Chinese individuals. This can be interpreted as a sign of strength as it protects domestic markets from negative foreign sentiment. On the other hand, analysts raise flags about the validity of this bull push.
Money Printer Goes Brrrr Evolution of China’s stock markets from 2014-2020. Source: Bloomberg.Along with the loosening of margin trading rules, several state media outlets said origin »
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