2021-5-4 18:06 |
Bitcoin is still struggling to get back above $60,000, and is sinking lower with each passing day. Another defense at $50,000 might be near, and if bulls cannot support the key level another time, a bear market could follow.
According to the momentum of past market cycles, the next bear phase could be a walk in the park – potentially only lasting less than a year. Here’s one prominent crypto analyst’s take on what to expect if the top cryptocurrency reverses from here.
A Bitcoin Bear Market Already? What About Stock-To-Flow?The idea that Bitcoin’s bull cycle is anywhere near finished is something that very few crypto investors would consider at a real possibility.
With projections from analysts calling for hundreds of thousands per coin, and a stock-to-flow model essentially backing up claims with mathematical projections, it has brainwashed the community to believe nothing but a scenario where the cryptocurrency keeps on rising from here.
Related Reading | Sticky Situation: Strength Indicator Says Bears Have Taken Over Bitcoin
The same stock-to-flow trajectory suggests the rally is nowhere near done, yet Bitcoin price action just can’t get above $60,000 and stay there.
Altcoins are taking over again, turning the narrative against BTC as dated tech that’s ready to die. There’s even a top signal based on Pi that’s appeared for the first time since December 2017 – and it has never been incorrect.
All these signs point to a bear market ahead, but it might not be what we’ve come to expect for bear markets in crypto, according to crypto analyst Dave the Wave.
Momentum suggests the next downtrend lasts only ten months | Source: BLX on TradingView.com Why The Next Crypto Market Downtrend Could Only Last Ten MonthsUsing a combination of time-fib ratios and the angle of past downtrend’s momentum according to the logarithmic MACD, the crypto analyst who focuses on cyclicality, claims that any resulting bear phase could last only a short ten months.
The theory is based on the idea that the current bull market has fizzled out at the top of the logarithm growth channel they’ve been watching for years. A reversion toward the bottom of the channel would take Bitcoin back to $20,000 over the next year – which is not at all what the market is expecting.
Related Reading | Why A Reversal In Gold Could Tarnish Recent Bitcoin Narrative
The term “this time is different” would certainly be true, but not in the way holders were hoping for. Throughout the bull market, coins have been moving off of exchanges at a rapid rate.
Failure to follow the stock-to-flow and other insane projections would almost certainly get those coins moving, and into the hands of institutions from retail holders and early investors who could lose patience in Bitcoin if there’s not six-figure BTC in 2021.
However, if the downtrend really does only last about ten months, those six-figure prices could come in 2022, just one year later when things turn back up again.
Of course, this is all just speculation based on one analyst’s take. This particular analyst has done well with calling almost all major tops and bottoms in crypto over the last several years – will that track record continue when the entire market disagrees with the expectation?
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