Why It’s “Increasingly Unlikely” Bitcoin Crashes Under $7,000: Analyst Explains

Why It’s “Increasingly Unlikely” Bitcoin Crashes Under $7,000: Analyst Explains
фото показано с : bitcoinist.com

2020-6-17 04:00

As Bitcoin has stalled in the $8,000s and $9,000s over recent weeks, certain analysts have begun to expect a strong move lower. One top trader went as far as to say that BTC could see a 40% drop in the coming months. He attributed this sentiment to how the cryptocurrency has seen such retracements in previous bull markets: “I’ve been seeing more and more comments saying BTC going down to support is unlikely because that’d be too big a drop. That’s not how BTC works. Retraces are short and vicious. Crashes even more so. 40% down is not unlikely, it’s happened before, it’ll happen again.” Image Courtesy of DonAlt. Chart from TradingView.com Yet an on-chain analyst has argued that with the ongoing macroeconomic environment, there is a low chance BTC slides under $7,000. Bitcoin Is Unlikely to Slip Under $7,000: On-Chain Analyst Every bear market over the past decade, Bitcoin moved below its two-year moving average to mark the bottom of a bear trend. In 2015, BTC fell to the $200-400 range to confirm this pattern. And even this year, during March’s crash, the cryptocurrency briefly traded under the pivotal technical level before recovering just weeks ago. According to the on-chain analyst that popularized this form of cycle analysis, Philip Swift, there’s a low chance Bitcoin dips under the moving average again during this cycle. “With mega money printing and growing unrest about (financial) freedoms around the world, dips below the 2yr MA (green line) are increasingly unlikely IMO,” he remarked, referencing how the recent “boring” price action looks exactly as BTC did at the start of previous parabolic bull runs.  Bitcoin price chart with the Two-Year Moving Average Multiplier tool from on-chain analyst Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto on Twitter). The moving average is currently trending around $7,000, meaning Swift doesn’t believe BTC will slide under the level. The Fundamental Trends Boosting BTC Investors and executives in the space have recently postulated that Bitcoin is on the verge of a long-term uptrend. This corroborates Swift’s sentiment that Bitcoin is unlikely to dip under the moving average in this phase of the market cycle. They cite macro factors like money printing as reasons why BTC is poised to trend to the upside. In an interview with Bloomberg, Blockstream chief executive Adam Back remarked that BTC hitting $300,000 in the next five years is feasible. Some think Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, yet he has vehemently denied the rumors. The prominent programmer argued that with “a lot of money printing” going on in the world, BTC is making much more sense as an investment. This has been corroborated by Paul Tudor Jones, a billionaire investor. The Wall Street veteran wrote in a May report that he thinks BTC is the “fastest horse in the race” in a world where money is being printed en masse by central banks. Featured Image from Shutterstock Price tags: btcusd, xbtusd, btcusdt Why It's "Increasingly Unlikely" Bitcoin Crashes Under $7,000: Analyst Explains

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2019-3-23 01:23


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Could Three Times Be the Charm for This Resistance Level?

Bitcoin remains in its tightly coiled range as the market continues its sideways trend for the third week in a row. While macro support has been tested three times recently, we have yet to test the overhanging macro resistance:Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Narrow RangeThe blue zone outlined above shows a very strong zone of support that, over the last few weeks, has seen three strong tests and has led to a slowly upward-drifting market consolidation.

2019-3-16 01:56


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Low Time Frames Show Signs of Life Amid Weekly Tests

Bitcoin continues to coil tightly within its range-bound market as the bulls and bears fight it out to see which is most dominant. On the lower time frames (TF), bitcoin is managing to find support:Figure 1: BTC-USD, 2-Hour Candles, Low TF SupportThe zone outlined by the green line in Figure 1 represents local support that has kept the market afloat for the last week and a half.

2019-3-13 22:26


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: New High Paves Potential Reversal Setup

After days and days of consolidation, bitcoin finally managed to break a new high for the first time in almost two weeks. This new high, so far, has been short lived, however, as it was almost immediately sold into by eager bears:Figure 1: BTC-USD, 4-Hour Candles, New HighOur current 4-hour candle is seeing a relatively easy retracement after days and days of an upward grind.

2019-3-9 02:08


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Keep an Eye Out for a Close Above the Current High

Shortly after falling from its test of the low $4,000s, bitcoin managed to find support in the mid $3,500s. This has proven to be a relevant level over the last few months, and finding support here would be a sign of relatively strong demand:Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Local SupportThe high candle spread rejection following our test of the low $4,000s was an indication that we had strong levels of supply left in the market, but for the time being we are holding support.

2019-3-1 03:44


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bullish Rejection Wipes Out Bitcoin’s Weekend Gains

Over the weekend, a strong rally was stifled by an even stronger rejection as the bitcoin market was shoved into a band of overhanging resistance. This band of resistance has been mentioned several times in our analyses over the last few weeks as it has proven impossible to overcome for the time being:Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Failed BreakoutThis run to the low $4,000s coincided with a breakout of a rather large symmetrical triangle consolidation shown above.

2019-2-26 02:42


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bullish Setups Could Break Current Market Structure

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2019-2-23 02:23


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Consolidation Breaks Out Into Macro Resistance Test

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2019-2-20 01:38


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: After Sudden Upswing, Bitcoin Price Drifts Downward

Last week, we saw a violent move to the upside as bitcoin rallied 11% over the course of one day. Since peaking in the upper $3,600s, bitcoin has seen close to zero bullish follow-through, and the price has begun to drift downward over the course of the last week:Figure 1: BTC-USD, Hourly Candles, Downward DriftDownward-drifting markets like this can often be a sign that distribution is taking place.

2019-2-15 00:21


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Major Support Broken on Expanding Volume and Spread

After weeks of consolidation, bitcoin finally broke through support. The market now finds itself cruising toward prior lows. On expanding volume and spread, the bitcoin market appears ripe for a continuation of the downtrend:Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Broken SupportAlthough the current daily candle has yet to close, unless there is a strong influx of demand hitting the market, it stands to reason that bitcoin will be closing a new daily low for the first time since mid-December.

2019-1-29 02:01


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Strong Move Likely Following Tightly Coiled Market

Days and days of sideways consolidation and tightening volume has been the name of the game for the bitcoin market. A narrow range of $200 has caused a weeks worth of activity to coil and consolidate in preparation for bitcoin’s next move:Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Narrow RangeThe figure above shows just how narrow the range has been over the last week as the market has continued to grind out support and fail to break above overhanging resistance.

2019-1-26 03:13


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bitcoin Tests Boundary Support as Demand Weakens

Following last Friday’s drop, bitcoin has found itself coiled, once again, at the bottom of the range it established back in December. With the current market unable to close a new high, the market finds itself in a precarious position:Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Range Support TestThe blue support level shown above illustrates the boundary of the multi-week range bitcoin has been bound by.

2019-1-18 02:02


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Range-Bound Market Coiled for Next Move

For the better part of a month and a half, bitcoin has been fairly range-bound and unable to establish new lows or new highs. There are some bullish and bearish setups on the horizon for bitcoin, so let’s check out both sides of the argument because currently the market is sitting in the middle of Indecisionville — the most immediate sign of which is this glaringly obvious head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern:Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Head-and-Shoulders BottomThis current pattern is nothing more than a setup at the moment, but it represents one potential outcome of this sustained consolidation.

2019-1-4 02:22


New Report Shows Bitcoin (10 Years) and Gold (1,000s of Years) Share Strong Market Correlation

In general, Bitcoin (BTC) has always been considered as a non-correlated asset in the market. Its price was usually guided by other forces that traditional markets did not follow. However, in a recent report shared by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) Bitcoin is becoming more correlated to assets such as Gold. In order to understand […]

2018-12-29 21:48


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Wait and See Where Recent Signs of Strength Lead

This week realized a big gain as bitcoin enjoyed a 25% rally from its local bottom before topping out around $4,400. Support currently appears to be established in the mid-$3,000s as the market remains indecisive over its next move:Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Current Support LevelFigure 1 shows the relevance of the current support level as it represents a previous support level that was never properly retested during last year’s parabolic bull market.

2018-11-30 01:45


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: High Shorts Count Could Signal Price Hike

Once again, bitcoin finds itself precariously perched on the bottom of its macro trading range (TR). After a strong round of selling over the course of two weeks plunged the price back to the $6,000s, bitcoin began consolidating for several weeks at the bottom of the TR:Figure 1: BTC-USD, 1-Day Candles, Macro TRAs shown in the figure above, the market has interacted several times at the current price range and it has been a source of three major bullish rallies.

2018-8-25 00:42


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Bitcoin Surges 17 Percent to Close Week in mid-7,000s: BTCManager’s Week in Review July 23

The price of bitcoin rallied by over 17 percent week-on-week giving bitcoin hodlers hope that the worst might finally be over for this year. This week’s price surge was driven by the news that the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, may start to invest in bitcoin, as well as the arrival of more positive regulatory news suggesting that the feared.

2018-7-24 05:00


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: New Low on Low Volume Breeds Potential Bullish Set-up

Bitcoin sits precariously perched at the bottom of the annual market low and many bitcoin investors aren’t sure what to make of it. Although the market seems to be continuing its drift to new lows with greater and greater ease, there are a couple of bullish signals worth considering while the market continues to consolidate: Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, New Market LowOn Friday, June 29, 2018, for the first time this year, the daily candles closed below the annual low of $6,000s.

2018-7-1 19:35


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