Despite a year of significant bullish momentum, Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break through the psychologically and technically significant $110,000 barrier, at least sustainably.

After reaching an all-time high of $111,700 in May, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap has been stuck in a tight range between $103,000 and $108,000.

This has puzzled investors, especially given the backdrop of institutional adoption, record inflows (ETFs), and favourable macro conditions.

More importantly, Michael Bucella, the managing partner of Neoclassical Capital, expects BTC to remain stuck in this range for a while. At the time of writing, the crypto king is going for a little under $108,000.

Speaking recently with CNBC, Bucella referenced initiatives from the likes of 21 Capital, Tether, and Pro Cap that are raising billions of dollars through Bitcoin Treasury products.

The market veteran also acknowledged that “ETF inflows have been enormous – $4 billion in June alone.” However, BTC price action has, nonetheless, remained muted.

One reason is risk substitution. As Bucella explained, “Some investors are replacing Bitcoin spot risk with proxies like Coinbase, Circle, or Bitcoin treasury companies.”

These firms, buoyed by the stablecoin boom and AI-adjacent narratives, have become alternative vehicles for crypto exposure, siphoning off capital that might otherwise flow directly into BTC.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is showing signs of fatigue. Experts point to wedge formation on the hourly chart, with repeated rejections just below $110,000.

According to Coinotag, short interest is rising, and open interest is declining – classic signals of a potential soft reversal. The $106,000 level has emerged as a critical support zone; a break below it could trigger a deeper correction.

Adding to the pressure are Bitcoin miners. Many are operating on razor-thin margins and have begun liquidating holdings to stay afloat.

“If you don’t have top-tier assets or AI contracts to pivot to, you’re running loss-making models,” Bucella said. This miner-driven supply is quietly weighing on the market, even as demand remains robust.

Meanwhile, whale activity has declined as well. Data from CoinEngineer shows a 57% decline in whale volume over a recent two-day span, coinciding with BTC’s failure to breach $110,000.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also cooled from overbought levels, suggesting waning momentum.

Bitcoin’s identity crisis may also be contributing to its stalled ascent.

During geopolitical flare-ups, such as the recent Israel-Iran tensions, Bitcoin sold off rather than acting as a safe haven. “If it’s not going to behave like digital gold, then why not just own the S&P 500?” the CNBC host asked pointedly.

Bucella responded that Bitcoin’s correlation depends on the timeframe and context. “It continues to be a great beneficiary of global currencies cratering,” he said, pointing to the surge in demand from sovereign and institutional treasuries.

Still, for Bitcoin to decisively break above $110,000, it may need more than macro tailwinds and ETF flows.

It needs a narrative reset – one that reaffirms its role as both a hard asset and a growth vehicle. Until then, the $110K ceiling remains a stubborn test of conviction.

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