In this episode of NewsBTC’s all-new daily technical analysis videos, we are looking at the the impact an upcoming speech from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell could have on Bitcoin price action.

Take a look at the video below.

The US Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak at the global central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, focusing on the future economic outlook. Depending on if that outlook is hawkish or dovish, Bitcoin could sink further or begin to soar. 

On daily timeframes the picture overall isn’t looking very positive for BTCUSD and could imply that the market should expect negative news tomorrow. From top to bottom, starting with the Ichiomoku, we can see that Bitcoin lost the cloud as support and is now trading below both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. These two lines have also recently crossed bearish.

The daily LMACD is also showing momentum in favor of bears. The bearish momentum is weakening, however, but could pick right back up tomorrow as markets price in whatever Powell has to say about the future of the US economy.

Finally, the Average Directional Index shows that bears are in control, and the trend is back at around a reading of 20. Below 20 would suggest a trend weakening, while retesting the level and then rising higher could restart the bearish trend.

Switching to the same tools on the weekly timeframe also shows Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market at a pivotal moment. Price was rejected from above to back below the Tenkan-sen. The LMACD is also still crossed bearish and ready to either cross up or diverge downward further.

The ADX shows that bears still have the upper hand, but the trend has started to flatten which could indicate that the worst is over on higher timeframes.

With only a week remaining in the month of August, combined with both Powell’s comments and the weekly timeframe at a pivotal turning point, we should get a clearer picture soon regarding if a bull trend is blossoming, or if the bearish trend is about to worsen.

The monthly Ichimoku is an interesting picture currently and could give bulls some hope ahead. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen remain crossed bullish. Take a look at the last bear market and you can easily see how quickly these two lines crossed bearish in the past. This could mean that Bitcoin is still bullish, despite the macro pressure. It also could mean the worst is still ahead and a cross is still coming.

It doesn’t help that monthly momentum on the LMACD hasn’t begun to weaken according to the histogram. The ADX does show an overall trend continuing to fizzle out, with bears taking charge for the first time since the 2014-2015 bear market bottom. Bullish strength has also fallen below 20 for the first time in history.

The TD Sequential is a market timing indicator designed by Thomas Demark. Simply reaching a 9-count on a downtrend is enough for a buy setup –– which is a positive case for Bitcoin currently. However, these signals are more powerful when the 9-count is “perfected”. To perfect the series, Bitcoin would need to set a lower low below the current bottom at $17,600.

Although bearish signals outweigh the bullish, price action continues to hold above a more than ten year long trend line. Until this line in the sand is lost, bull still have hope in staging a reversal. But more than likely they will need Mr. Powell and his money printing pals to cooperate tomorrow. 

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