In a potentially pivotal moment for the Bitcoin and crypto industry, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals is anticipated to deliver a verdict on Grayscale Investments’ lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this week. The lawsuit pertains to Grayscale’s bid to convert its Bitcoin trust into a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

James Seyffart, a Bloomberg analyst, has been vocal about the possible decision date, remarking on Twitter, “Tomorrow is 8/15,” referring to his timeline for a Bitcoin spot ETF. The spreadsheet sets August 15 for a decision in the lawsuit between Grayscale and the SEC.

He added, “8/15 has been my theoretical Grayscale lawsuit decision date for a while now but it’s really just an educated guess.” Seyffart further elaborated on his prediction, mentioning, “I didn’t even do detailed analysis on the court decisions like Scott Johnsson did. But I did a little bit of it and also had convos with Elliott Z. Stein about timelines.”

In response to Seyffart’s comments, Elliott Z. Stein, a renowned litigation analyst at Bloomberg, humorously remarked, “Hope you’re both wrong only because I’m out of pocket tomorrow after 10:30 am.” Seyffart’s light-hearted reply was, “Just text Srinivasan real quick. If it’s planned for tomorrow I’m sure he’ll wait at least a couple days for you if you ask nicely. That’s how things work down there. Right.”

Scott Johnsson, a finance attorney with Davis Polk, delved deeper into the matter, pointing out that “30 out of 32 cases from March ’21/’22 were resolved within 160 days of their oral arguments.” With Grayscale’s oral arguments having taken place 160 days ago in March 2023, the timeline is noteworthy.

Johnsson also highlighted the importance of August, a period when District Courts typically see a transition of law clerks, prompting judges to address outstanding cases “before the incoming batch takes over.”

Adding to this, Johnsson observed that “Nearly all March 2022 cases presented to the DC Circuit were concluded within 154 days, with a single exception at 170 days.” As of now, Tuesday, August 15, 160 days have passed since Grayscale’s case was presented, “with only a few March cases still pending a decision.”

Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, weighed in on the discussion and added another aspect. According to him, the decision could come out at 11:00 am EST, because the court usually releases decisions around that time.

He suggested, “Very good poss we learn Grayscale SEC outcome tomorrow around 11 am. Only a small fraction of cases have taken longer to get decision. So odds are pretty good.” He further clarified, “To be clear it’s poss we don’t hear too. But that would make this case somewhat of an outlier.”

Balchunas, acknowledging Johnsson’s legal acumen, laid out that there are two key days to watch for a Grayscale decision this week, Tuesday and Friday, both at 11 am: “Scott, who has more legal IQ than me, likes this Friday. (These cases are announced on Tues and Fridays at 11am). Either way point is it’s time to be on the lookout.”

Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC stems from the regulator’s rejection in June 2022 of the firm’s application to convert its GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF. Grayscale argued that the SEC acted arbitrarily by not applying consistent treatment to similar investment vehicles. Notably, industry commentators at Bloomberg have expressed optimism about Grayscale’s chances of winning the lawsuit.

As Bitcoinist reported, Grayscale has also recently advocated for the SEC to approve all Bitcoin spot ETF applications simultaneously, to ensure no firm gains an undue advantage over others.

At press time, the bitcoin price was at $29,388, failing to respond to the speculation.

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