Geoffrey Kendrick, head of forex and digital assets research at Standard Chartered, predicts that the Bitcoin price could surge to $100,000 ahead of the US presidential elections this November. In an email to The Block, Kendrick elaborated on the factors driving this forecast and offered a more detailed outlook for BTC’s price trajectory.

“As we approach the US election, I expect $100,000 to be reached and then $150,000 by year-end in the case of a Trump victory,” Kendrick stated. He pointed to the current political climate and recent regulatory decisions, noting, “The Biden administration recently showed pragmatism in approving the spot Ether ETFs, but subsequently Biden vetoed efforts to repeal SAB 121. So Trump is still more friendly than Biden.”

Kendrick emphasized the potential impact of tomorrow’s US Non-Farm Payrolls data on BTC’s price. He noted that favorable data could trigger a new all-time high over the weekend, opening the way for $80,000 by the end of June. “If the data is ‘friendly,’ I expect a fresh all-time high for Bitcoin’s price to be reached over the weekend,” he said.

The analyst also reiterated his long-term price predictions, maintaining a year-end target of $150,000 and an end-of-2025 forecast of $200,000 per BTC. “Notably, a $150,000 price by end-2024 would see Bitcoin join the $3 trillion club in terms of market cap, following NVDA’s $3 trillion market cap which was reached yesterday,” Kendrick highlighted.

Two months ago, Standard Chartered released a research note offering a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum by the end of 2024 and beyond. The bank’s analysts projected Bitcoin could reach $150,000, while Ethereum could hit $8,000. These projections were bolstered by the launch of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, which have seen massive inflows.

Kendrick and Suki Cooper explained that “rapid inflows to the new Bitcoin spot ETFs have dominated […] Most of the inflows are likely to be sticky pension-type flows,” underscoring the newfound stability in BTC investment trends.

Standard Chartered’s bullish Bitcoin valuation is based on three pivotal analyses. First, drawing parallels with the gold market’s response to the introduction of US gold ETFs, the bank estimates BTC could rise to the $200,000 level, marking a 4.3x increase from its pre-ETF price.

Second, by optimizing a portfolio with 80% gold and 20% Bitcoin at current gold prices, the analysis suggests a Bitcoin level of around $190,000. Lastly, a linear extrapolation based on the correlation between ETF inflows and BTC price points to a possible $250,000 level, assuming total ETF inflows around the bank’s midpoint estimate of $75 billion.

The bank noted that these measures suggest “that $200,000 is the ‘correct’ end-2025 price level for BTC, […] and that it is likely to be the new midpoint for a sideways trading range at that time.” The research further suggested that an “overshoot to $250,000 is likely at some point in 2025 if ETF inflows continue apace and/or reserve managers buy BTC.”

At press time, BTC traded at $71,183.

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