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BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager and currently the de-facto leader of the ETF movement, applied with the SEC last month, driving optimism and higher bitcoin prices.

While most crypto fans believe the hoped-for successful approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the U.S. would be a seminal moment in the history of crypto, JPMorgan analysts claim such a move by the SEC would not have a significant impact on the market for a couple of reasons.

The news surrounding a flurry of applications from the likes of BlackRock, Fidelity, Valkyrie, WisdomTree, ARK Invest, and others, for a spot bitcoin ETF sent the price of the bellwether crypto to multi-month highs. For most enthusiasts, this was a sign that institutional investment into the cryptoverse was once again upon us.

However, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou point out in a Thursday report that spot BTC ETFs have long existed in Canada and Europe without garnering much investor interest, hence “the potential approval of physically backed bitcoin ETFs by the SEC [Securities and Exchange Commission] is unlikely to be a game changer for crypto markets.”

The analysts also acknowledged that spot BTC ETFs provide certain advantages over futures bitcoin ETFs, but these benefits are “rather marginal”. Physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs would allow a large swath of retail American investors to have skin in the game without having to store the cryptocurrency themselves. Unlike the futures-based ETFs, these spot ETFs also have the potential to reflect real-time supply and demand more accurately, causing improved liquidity and enhanced price transparency, as per JPMorgan analysts.

Yet, the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs could transfer trading activity from bitcoin futures markets in the U.S. “to the extent spot bitcoin ETFs replace futures-based bitcoin ETFs,” they added.

While several high-profile funds and companies have filed paperwork for spot Bitcoin ETFs with the SEC in the past, all have either backed out or faced outright denials from the U.S. regulator since 2017. In Canada, however, key funds, including Purpose Bitcoin, 3iQ CoinShares, and CI Galaxy Bitcoin — all directly invested in spot BTC — are already available for customers.

JPMorgan strategists believe the SEC might actually OK one of the recent new applications for the long-awaited spot product because some of the regulator’s previous concerns are assumed to be addressed as the would-be ETF issuers have indicated their intention to enter into surveillance-sharing agreements with Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the US. Under a surveillance-sharing agreement, information about market trading and clearing activities is shared between entities to deter any potential market manipulation.

Last month, the SEC approved the first leveraged bitcoin futures ETF, Volatility Shares 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX). The open question now is whether the commission will also approve the first-ever spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. this year. 

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