2024-7-9 17:03 |
Plus: Polymarket traders remain skeptical about Biden's insistence he's staying in the U.S. presidential race; will ETH fall to $2,630? origin »
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Plus: the market is not confident if Matt Gaetz will be confirmed as Trump's attorney general.
How will Polymarket and Kalshi resolve their presidential bets if there's another Jan. 6 or Bush v. Gore situation?
Initially, Kalshi's feeds will power perpetual futures contracts on decentralized exchanges. Eventually, the centralized betting platform might referee on-chain prediction markets.
If it turns out that the judge's ruling preempts the CFTC’s proposed rulemaking, election event contracts may now be completely legal.
Plus: Polymarket traders doubt Trump will go to prison; Kalshi bettors are at odds with the CME FedWatch poll on rate cuts.
Continuing pro-Palestine protests won't lead to Minouche Shafik having a fate similar to Claudine Gay, who was recently forced to resign as Harvard's president, the prediction market signals. Plus: Kalshi bettors don't think Taylor Swift will break her record.