Hedera’s recent price action has struggled to inspire confidence, with HBAR failing to sustain any meaningful recovery. 

While expectations were high following the launch of an HBAR exchange-traded fund, the token’s muted performance highlights a familiar crypto narrative. The episode increasingly resembles a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” outcome.

The Canary HBAR ETF has emerged as one of the weakest-performing crypto ETPs since its debut. Around its late-October launch, the product briefly attracted strong interest, peaking near $30 million in cumulative inflows. That momentum, however, faded quickly and has not returned in a sustained manner.

Recent data shows the ETF recording just $875,000 in inflows, while most trading days have seen net flows remain flat at zero. This pattern reflects speculative positioning ahead of the launch. Once the ETF went live, early participants booked profits, triggering persistent selling pressure. The approval itself failed to unlock meaningful new demand.

Furthermore, ETF impact was more symbolic than capital-driven. The Canary ETF improved visibility but did not unlock significant new demand for spot HBAR. Without strong follow-through volume, price failed to hold key technical levels, accelerating downside moves.

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Technical indicators reinforce this cautious outlook. The Chaikin Money Flow, which tracks capital movement among larger holders, is slipping below the zero line. Historically, similar shifts in CMF have coincided with periods of price weakness for HBAR, as outflows begin to dominate inflows.

This behavior suggests institutional and whale interest remains fragile. When capital exits Hedera, price reactions have often been swift. If CMF continues to trend lower, it could signal another wave of distribution. That dynamic would limit upside attempts and keep recovery efforts constrained.

Since the HBAR ETF went live, the token has declined roughly 41%, falling from $0.200 to about $0.117 at the time of writing. This drop highlights the disconnect between expectations and realized demand. HBAR has since entered consolidation phases after each sharp move, reflecting indecision.

A similar range-bound outcome now appears likely. HBAR is oscillating between $0.131 resistance and $0.113 support. If selling pressure intensifies and outflows expand, a breakdown below $0.113 could follow. That move would expose $0.104 as the next downside target, with $0.096 acting as deeper support.

A bullish alternative depends on a shift in capital flows. Should outflows stall and broader market sentiment improve, HBAR could stabilize near $0.113 and rebound. A decisive move above $0.131 would strengthen recovery prospects. Pushing toward $0.150 would invalidate the bearish thesis and signal renewed confidence.

The post HBAR Price Is Down 40% Since Canary ETF Launch; What Went Wrong? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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