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Macro-economist Henrik Zeberg thinks Bitcoin (BTC) and other risk assets are gearing up for a “monster” move, with the trend still in its early stages. Zeberg’s predictions are based on the BTC/SPX Ratio, an indicator that compares Bitcoin’s performance to the S&P 500 index (SPX).

Despite recent fluctuations and concerns about the crypto market’s sustainability, Zeberg remains bullish on BTC. In the analyst’s view, the BTC/SPX Ratio offers strong evidence that the Bitcoin uptrend is “just starting.” Based on price movements, the current leg down in September could provide opportunities for traders to accumulate.

The BTC/SPX Ratio is an indicator that assesses the relative performance of Bitcoin and the stock market. The ratio is derived from dividing the Bitcoin and S&P 500 index (SPX) spot prices. When it is rising, like it is presently the case, it indicates that Bitcoin is outperforming the stock market. Conversely, a declining ratio suggests that Bitcoin is underperforming. In that case, banking on the stock market could generate better returns than HODLing BTC.

From the chart shared on October 3, Zeberg said a “bull” signal was triggered in February 2023, preceding a substantial rally in Bitcoin’s price. By July 2023, Bitcoin had surged to approximately $32,000. While there has been a cooling-off period since then, Bitcoin is trending above February highs at around $25,200, confirming the uptrend.

Between April 2019 and May 2021, when a similar bull signal was printed, BTC soared by 6X, while the S&P 500 saw a more modest increase of 41%. Zeberg’s assessment, based on the BTC/SPX Ratio, suggests that Bitcoin–and other risk assets, by extension, can post strong gains in the months ahead.

Whether this will be printed or not can only be speculated. Looking at the BTC/SPX Ratio, the indicator is lagging and doesn’t precisely capture market peaks or bottoms. 

For instance, the last bear signal in May 2021 was months ahead before Bitcoin peaked in November 2021 and fell. Therefore, while the bull signal was recorded in early February 2023, it is unclear whether there will be another leg down before prices rise or bears press on, pushing the coin back to 2022 lows. 

If buyers take control and the BTC/SPX Ratio indicator is correct, it is impossible to determine how high BTC will rise at current rates. If the last bull run is anything to go by, BTC may surge by 6X. In that case, BTC may rally and push beyond $200,000 in this bull cycle.

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