2022-7-12 19:41 |
CoinShares’ Chief Strategy Officer Meltem Demirors has predicted a longer than expected winter for Bitcoin, Ether, Cardano, Solana, Polkadot, and other cryptocurrencies even as markets struggle to find a soft landing.
Speaking to CNBC Monday, Demirors stated that the crypto market was still far away from an inflection, noting that the ongoing macro-economic indicators could thrust Bitcoin into a lengthy dead zone.
“For us at CoinShares the view is we are going to stay where we are for a while. There are no near-term upside catalysts. We have yet to see bitcoin in a recession,” Meltem told ‘Squawk Box’ Andrew Ross. “Certainly expect more pain ahead for tech stocks, growth, and also crypto.”
According to her, despite the crypto market losing over half of its entire gains, there were still a lot of off-chain activities such as OTC contracts, which could trigger a final capitulation before Bitcoin finds a bottom.
“We obviously had a lot of liquidations that had a massive impact on the market- we are talking about 10, 20 30 billion dollars that basically evaporated overnight and we haven’t yet seen the full impact of that because most of the companies in this industry are not publicly listed,” she went on.
In the past half of 2022, cryptocurrencies have suffered a painful beat down with the global crypto market capitalization dropping to less than $1 trillion from its November peak of $3 trillion. Bitcoin has lost over 70% of its value since hitting an all-time high with some cryptocurrencies dipping as much as 85%. The losing streak that began last November was aggravated by various dynamics including the Russo-Ukrainian War, the implosion of TerraUSD as well as the massive liquidity crisis that hit DeFi lending firms last month.
In the meantime, Bitcoin continues to trade opposite the Dollar Index (DXY) which has now hit a 20-year high with rising inflation. Historically, this has been a bad sign for Bitcoin. However, according to Bloomberg Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone “the federal reserve may get enduring deflation,” capping the ascent of the DXY and thrusting Bitcoin to the upside.
Last week the pundit shared the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index which he said was “nearing a similar drawdown as the 2018 bottom,” signaling a possible turnaround for BTC. “Bitcoin could be one of the greatest bull markets in history at a relatively discounted price to start 2H” he had stated in a tweet before adding, “Our bias is Bitcoin adoption is more likely to continue rising.”
As of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $19,878 after a 3% drawdown in the past day.
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