Bear Market for Bitcoin Has Passed, But Altcoins Are on Their Last Limb, says China VC

Kira Sun works at BlockVC as an investment manager. Representing her blockchain investment firm, she was recently a guest on CNBC Cryptotrader during a segment called “The Future of the Utility Token.” In the time on the segment, Sun expressed his belief that the bear market is over for Bitcoin, but that altcoins will remain on the path to recovery for at least 200 days.

Sun has worked as a fund manager for CITIC Trust, and already has alternative asset management in their resume. During an interview at Singapore Blockchain Week, he took the time to speak about the bottom of the bear market for Bitcoin, along with what to expect in the future. He said,

“I think it depends on how you understand the market structure. We think for Bitcoin itself it has reached a bottom, but for the other cryptocurrencies, it is far from the end. We think the bearish market is going to be lasting for more than 200 days for cryptocurrency other than bitcoin.”

The predictions that Sun is bold enough to make have been based on what he has seen in the blockchain network itself and the tracking of BTC transactions. Right now, he believes that BTC is finally at a “reasonable value” for trading, based on the analysis of blockchain transactions. Explaining, he said,

“We calculate the net transaction value of Bitcoin and we think the Bitcoin price has no bubble, now.”

However, he still believes that Bitcoin could fall victim to a small dip.

In an evaluation from Block VC, the investment firm examined the cycles that had already passed, bringing them to the 200-day conclusion. Sun believes that the market cycles reflect equal time in the downward and upward cycles. Since the trend is presently at 200 days going downward, it should statistically take 200 days to come back up. However, this number of days increases as the downward trend continues.

Rather than getting rid of anything involving Bitcoin, Sun instead believes that it is best to create a diversified portfolio. An easy way to do this is to move over Ethereum into different coins, like Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Ethereum. He added,

“As a…professional portfolio manager, I would stress you to transfer your ETH into a diversified portfolio consisting of more than five components, like Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum EOS; you have to build a very diversified portfolio to mitigate the risk and provide downward risk protection for yourself.”

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