Dogecoin traders have heard the “five-cent” call before. It’s the kind of number that sounds like bait until price action starts behaving like it might actually get there.

On Friday, DOGE was changing hands around $0.140, up slightly on the day, while bitcoin hovered near $92,300. That’s the backdrop for a fresh warning from YouTube analyst VisionPulsed, who told viewers his “base case” is that Dogecoin revisits the $0.05–$0.06 zone over the next 12 months — a window that drags the target straight into 2026.

In the video posted on December 11 and titled “WHY IS DOGECOIN CRASHING!? BITCOIN RALLY COMING OR BULL TRAP FOR 5 CENT DOGE in 2026!?, the gist of his argument is pretty simple: if bitcoin is in a bear regime, DOGE doesn’t need an extra reason to bleed.

“The base case here is that Bitcoin has entered a bear market,” he said, pointing to a cluster of indicators he watches, including an 8-day moving average near $102,000 and the Gaussian Channel. As long as BTC sits below those levels — he cited roughly $103,000 as a line in the sand — he thinks the path of least resistance for Dogecoin trends down toward five cents.

And he wasn’t exactly selling it as a clean, one-way trip. There’s a lot of “chop zone” talk in the video — his term for the period where traders get whipsawed trying to long bounces and short dips. “The peanut gallery,” he called it.

His chart-based rationale leans on a familiar pattern from 2022: even when bitcoin managed a relief rally, DOGE still printed lower lows at points. “There is no guarantee that Dogecoin will have a relief rally. As you can see, in 2022, Dogecoin did indeed have a relief rally for the final pump with Bitcoin, […] but you can also see that Bitcoin made higher lows throughout the spring as Dogecoin made lower lows,” he said.

In his view, one of those “unfinished” spots sits closer to $0.10 first — and then the uglier number comes back into play depending on how bitcoin behaves.

That sequencing matters because it’s exactly where traders get themselves into trouble. If bitcoin bounces, DOGE might bounce too. Or it might not. VisionPulsed kept hammering that there are “many indicators” suggesting a BTC relief rally is possible, but “no guarantees” Dogecoin participates — a point he tried to underline by comparing the current tape to MicroStrategy’s tendency to go flat for weeks before a sharp move.

Then there’s his timing framework, which is more narrative than math but still widely used in crypto circles: the idea that around 140–150 days from a major top, markets often produce a final meaningful rally — and then price doesn’t revisit those levels for a long time. He cited examples across prior cycles (2014, 2018, 2019, 2022) to argue that once bitcoin falls into that “channel” regime, it tends to stay there until the broader downtrend has done its work.

So what does $0.05 actually mean from here? From roughly $0.14, it’s a drawdown of about 64%. That’s violent, but not exactly exotic in DOGE history — which is why the call lands with some traders even if they hate hearing it.

The big escape hatch, per VisionPulsed, is a bitcoin breakout: if BTC makes a new all-time high by February, he argues the bearish “base case” gets invalidated and DOGE can do what DOGE does when the market turns risk-on. Until then, he framed $0.05–$0.06 as the boring, brutal probability-weighted outcome.

“So the base case for the next 12 months is essentially at some point Doge will most likely come down to these five to six cent range unless Bitcoin goes up and makes a new alltime high before February. If Bitcoin makes a new all-time high by February, then Doge will avoid that [$0.05 target] and start pumping to the moon like everybody wants,” he concluded.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.14.

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