Quick Take The Treasury General Account (TGA) at the Federal Reserve represents the government’s checking account. For further details, see previous insight on TGA.  At the beginning of the year, the federal reserve was injecting liquidity into the markets and, as a result, drawing down on the U.S. treasury account. It is now almost depleted; the bounce was tax day on April 18 — which saw roughly $100 billion of tax receipts. The path is not sustainable. The treasury should stay solvent until the end of May — while tax receipts continue until June. The spread between the 1-month and 3-month treasury bills signals concern from an investor point of view. The one-month yield plummeted — showing investors’ demand before a potential default. The spread widened as far as -1.859%. 1-month and three month yield: (Source: Trading View) TGA: (Source: FRED)

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