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A new research report by analysts as broker Bernstein suggests that the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), may experience a substantial shift based on the outcome of the forthcoming United States presidential election in November 2024.

The analysis indicates that a potential Donald Trump victory could propel Bitcoin’s price to as high as $90,000 later this year. However, if Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is elected, the dominant cryptocurrency could sink to $30,000 lows.

Bernstein has observed that a Trump election victory would be bullish for crypto, and a Harris win would be bearish.

In the Sept. 9 note to clients, analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia said they expect BTC to reclaim new highs and peak at the $80,000-$90,000 range by the fourth quarter of 2024 if Trump wins.

However, if Vice President Kamala Harris emerges victorious, they forecast Bitcoin breaking its current $50,000 floor and crashing back to the $30,000 to $40,000 range, where the bullish momentum for U.S.-listed spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) started.

Bernstein pointed out that former President Trump has been very outspoken about transforming America into the “Bitcoin and crypto capital of the world” and has publicly mentioned crypto assets in his policy speeches.

During his speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Trump vowed to make the U.S. a Bitcoin mining “powerhouse”, appoint a crypto-friendly Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair, and establish a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.

In contrast, Bernstein noted that crypto has not been mentioned in any of Harris’ speeches.

The report further stated that while efforts have been made to reach out to both political sides, the $2.05 trillion crypto industry has received “more warmth” from the Trump camp:

“While crypto industry leaders have been more open-minded with the Harris campaign and are hoping for a more constructive policy, we expect the delta between the two political outcomes to be wide.”

Bernstein also observed that the crypto market has faced significant regulatory hurdles in recent years.

“The current crypto market has survived through a very challenging regulatory environment,” the analysts said, adding that “regulatory actions… have eroded the trust of the crypto community and forced them down the partisan route.”

According to Bernstein, a crypto-friendly election outcome and a positive regulatory environment have not yet been priced into the market.

The report also spotlights the wider implications of the election for the crypto industry, suggesting that a favorable regulatory landscape could eliminate risk barriers for institutional players to participate, helping crypto assets compete with traditional assets for inflows and spurring innovation.

Bernstein analysts previously predicted Bitcoin would hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029, and a whopping $1 million by the end of 2033.

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