Mid May Update: Technicals

4H BCHBTC

Price is in a non-trending, ranging environment, a very important status that needs to be established before doing any TA (on any chart). As signaled by ADX indicator, BCH is an absent or weak trend with ADX value being 19. ADX is plotted as a single line with values ranging from a low of zero to a high of 100. On the scale from 0 to 20 – trend is absent or weak. From 20-50, it is considered a strong trend. Everything above 50 is very or extremely strong trend.

It is cemented in a horizontal channel between 0.047 and 0.053 BTC.

BCH has bounced nicely from the low of May 11th to reach Fib618 at 0.05604 BTC. The breakout point for BCH is the upper line of this horizontal channel at 0.053 BTC – if it penetrates this height, BCH will literally fly, potentially all the way up to test the previous high from April at 0.0649 BTC. Moving averages made a bullish crossover which is a further indicator of a potential surge for BCH.

Breakdown point is the bottom line of this horizontal channel at 0.0475 BTC. If this height fails, BCH will probably stoop all the way back to local bottom at 0.04303 BTC.

Daily BCHBTC

Intermediate trend for BCH is also trendless ranging with a bit almost identical horizontal channel that it traded back and forth since end April, more than a month now.

Weekly BCHBTC

Major trend for BCH is turning bullish as well, as the price action rests on EMA20 while forming a symmetric triangle pattern – usual indicator of trend continuation. Additionally, it formed a bullish spinning top candlestick pattern – the Spinning Top candlestick pattern has a single candle. It forms at the peak of an uptrend, the bottom of a downtrend, or in the middle of a trend.

Below is our long-term forecast where we cover general market movements and sentiment shifts before delving deeper into the specific predictions for BCH.

In mid-2017, a group of developers wanting to increase bitcoin’s block size limit prepared a code change. The change, called a hard fork, took effect on 1 August 2017. As a result, the bitcoin ledger called the blockchain and the cryptocurrency split in two.

Bitcoin Cash (“Bcash”) was created out of tension among early Bitcoin investors over rising transaction fees and increasingly divergent opinions on the best on-chain scaling solutions for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Cash also prioritizes strict adherence to what is called Satoshi’s “vision” for the original Bitcoin. Viewing peer to peer transactions as the core value proposition of the network and the factor that should be optimized versus other competing factors like security.

It differs from the other versions in that in enabled the increase of the block size from one MB to eight MB. It’s overall goal is to increase the number of transactions that can be processed by the network, hoping that Bitcoin Cash will be able to compete with the volume of transactions that industry giants like PayPal and Visa can currently process.

The official bitcoincash.org website states that Bitcoin Cash is set out to achieve three goals:

The needed technical improvements can be divided into three categories:

You can see a complete roadmap on the image below or by clicking here.

The downfall of altcoins that were mainstream media darlings at the start of the last year, BCH among them, can be attributed, in part, to novice investors getting scared off once the bear market kicked in with a vengeance. Every resurgence of bitcoin in recent period, was met with the, for the most part, inability of altcoins to rally with it. Reason for that can be rookie investors learning from their mistakes, while smart money that was previously watching from the sidelines has begun to enter into bitcoin.

These entities weren’t about to buy BTC when it was trading at an all-time high, but they’ll take a look now, having missed the boat the first time around. None of them, it seems, are interested in altcoins however, despite the fact that many are trading at a 5x discount. Institutional investors may be cautious, but they’re not foolish.

What does the Electroneum (ETN) future look like?

Some altcoins will continue to have some speculative value for the foreseeable future. But just like the now infamous tulips, the hysteria will eventually subside. We are already witnessing the first phases of that slide and even though most of the bag holders react emotionally to articles that criticize their coins, I am just observing the developments on the market. You better start emotionally detaching yourself from your “great sounding” coin because if goes nowhere, ideas are worthless without execution and real users that see value in the project.

BCH, as the rest of the market, is tied at the hip of bitcoin’s price action. If bitcoin embarks on another bull run, BCH can hope for one as well. Since that is very unlikely, don’t expect much to change for BCH price-wise in this year. So 2019 will be a year of boring sideways action with minor bitcoin ignited jumps and slumps.

In general:

The main currency in cryptocurrency markets is Bitcoin and given this, altcoins tend to fuel Bitcoin runs and Bitcoin tends to do the same in return. Given this relationship, Bitcoin price movements (or lack thereof) tend to effect altcoin prices.

When Bitcoin goes up swiftly, it will likely:

In cases when Bitcoin plunges, it will likely:

When Bitcoin moves sideways, it will likely:

What does Cardano future look like? See our ADA Price Prediction 2019

To summarize, Bitcoin is the focal point of the crypto market in many ways, and with BTC trading pairs on every exchange, the gravity of Bitcoin is hard to evade.

The majority of projects will fail — some startups are created just to gather funds and disappear, some would not handle the competition, but most are just ideas that look good on paper, but in reality, are useless for the market. 

Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum said:

“There are some good ideas, there are a lot of very bad ideas, and there are a lot of very, very bad ideas, and quite a few scams as well”

As a result, over 95% of cryptocurrency projects will fail and their investors will lose money. The other 5% of projects will become the new Apple, Google or Alibaba in the cryptoindustry. Will BCH be among those 5%?

An examination of the available 600+ days worth of data on the bitcoin cash blockchain shows that despite the impassioned arguments and big promises made about its 8 MB block size, it has never come close to filling out this capacity.
Bitcoin Cash still remains far behind Bitcoin not only in proportional terms but also in absolute terms as both miners and consumers have overwhelmingly chosen to remain with Bitcoin. The data shows that far from filling out or even getting anywhere close to its 8 MB block size, BCH has averaged a block size of merely 171 KB since the August 2017 fork. Bitcoin, by comparison, has averaged about 934 KB of its 1 MB block capacity over the past month. In other words, BCH is utilizing just about 2.1 percent of its block capacity.

It appears to be a failed experiment now that Lightning Network is maturing. BTC invested in a layer 2 solution and BCH invested in marketing to deceive new investors and mostly attacking BTC. And that backfired as the market clearly signaled which coin is seen as the “real” bitcoin and which one is relegated to the status of a mere altcoin.

Additionally, Bitcoin Cash network security is in a constant threat of reorg and 51% attack as its hashrate is couple of orders of magnitude lower than bitcoin’s.

All of this indicates that Bitcoin Cash has low probability of succeeding in its original intention but it not all is doomsday for the project. It can still pivot into being something different than bitcoin, especially as the project leaders show more agility in making changes than the bitcoin core camp. This proclivity to implementing changes and new features could be an advantage for BCH going forward.

Reasons for BCH to go up and rise in price are not to be ignored. Most notable possible success propellers of BCH: cheap and fast transactions and quicker, nimbler improvements implementation.

Transactions are extremely cheap on BCH, online businesses and merchant accounts can integrate it relatively easily and seize the an opportunity to transact for a median price of $0.05 per transaction, saving heavily on merchant fees and third party implementations.

When the Bitcoin network is saturated with an overwhelming flood of transactions, wait times can be longer and transaction fees can cost its users more – Bitcoin Cash instead accommodates users with faster transactions and cheaper fees. 

Small warchest to fund their roadmap, team fatigue or infights or rogue member that could disrupt the development are all possibilities that could lead to BCH failure. However, the biggest threat to BCH is one of their biggest advantages: their attempted use case. It could very well be that the lack of identity and botched hijack of bitcoin’s brand ricochet and end up hurting bitcoin cash in the end.

The whole project is frail as it essentially depends on the benevolence of couple of individuals: primarily Roger Ver and then Bitmain’s Jihan Wu. Should these two, for any reason whatsoever, decide to direct their wealth and clout into something else, BCH will sink in a Bitconnect-like fashion.

Bitcoin Cash is being pushed primarily by miners (Jihan Wu and his clan) that are able to use the ASIC exploit to their advantage. Bitmain in particular would prefer to see larger blocks that keep the ASIC exploit in order to be more profitable. The preserving of this exploit that the Chinese miners have invested so much money into is a key feature of Bitcoin Cash as it keeps their advantage alive. 

Probability of this happening is quite high and this makes investing in BCH highly risky undertaking.

No, judging by the team activity on social media, github, their own website. Their communities on Reddit and Telegram are also active, although much lower engagement levels are noticeable when compared to 2017. Coin is also still listed on all major exchanges which indicates that BCH is far from a dead project.

All of this summed up means one thing: BCH might live through couple of orchestrated and, for a regular trader, completely unpredictable pumps but the majority of time will be murky sideways trading with small volume and no significant interest from the market.

Price will heavily depend on what BTC will do and since many analysts think BTC will not be making big moves in this year, it is hard to expect BCH will do them either. The price will probably stagnate and record slow-moving depreciation or appreciation depending on the team activity, potential technological breakthrough or high-level partnership.

With the market being completely unpredictable, forecasting the cryptocurrency price is really more of a gamble and luck rather than a data driven guesstimate.

Let’s throw a glance at the eminent publications and personalities, and their predictions regarding the BCH price, which will give us another point of view to consider:

Walletinvestor is a popular website that does technical analysis-based price predictions of various cryptocurrencies. According to them, BCH is expected to drop heavily to $75 per token in one year.

Trading beasts display that BCH can rocket to around $396 within a year which means it can roughly reach about $2,760 by 2020.

Cryptoground predicts that BCH might rise to $560 by the end of 2019. They even added their version of BCH price prediction 2024, where they stated that BCH might reach $3,310 by 2024.

Digitalcoinprice gave a slightly positive prediction saying that by 2019 end, BCH might be two times more worth than now – $566 per coin.

BCH (BCH) has been one of the most contentious blockchains ever since its inception. However, the team kept working on their network and the project still seems to have some kind of a future, although the whole story and team behind it are fickle. In 2020, once the market wipes out the worthless projects, BCH might be still alive but the price could be far lower than now.

If BCH survives to see 2023, that would mean the project stood the test of time and user adoption is growing, which would all lead to the token being worth at least 10-100x than its hitherto all time high. That would mean BCH would cost $43k+ per coin.

Similarly to 2023, if BCH survives to see 2025, that would mean the project stood the test of time and user adoption is growing, which would all lead to the token being worth at least 100x+ than its hitherto all time high. That would mean BCH would cost at least $430k+ per coin.

Predicting prices of novel, highly volatile and risky asset classes is a thankless task – best answer is no one knows. Educated guess is that realistic BCH price for the foreseeable future is somewhere between its current price and its all time high.

The post Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Price Analysis and Prediction 2019: Sitting And Waiting In A Non-Trending Environment (May 25th Update) appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.

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