2024-5-2 14:30 |
The recent plummet in Bitcoin’s value below the $60,000 mark has sparked widespread speculation within the crypto community, raising questions among investors and market watchers about the future direction of its price. Marco Johanning, a well-known crypto analyst and founder of The Summit Club, took to X (formerly Twitter) to provide his insights on the current market conditions and what might be expected next.
According to Johanning, the recent price action does not signify a market downturn but rather a correction within an ongoing bull market. He emphasizes, “Bitcoin lost the range. What now? First and foremost, a reminder: we are in a bull market, and this is a correction. This is not a rally in a bear market. Or in other words, the high time frame trend is up no matter what.”
He supported this assertion with several indicators of a continued bullish trend. First, Bitcoin reached its bear market bottom in November 2022 and subsequently broke above the 200-day moving average, a critical indicator of long-term market trends. Following a drop below the 200-day moving average, there was a significant breakout above this level and THE major high time frame resistance in October 2023.
Moreover, Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high in March 2024. Over the last 18 months, Bitcoin has consistently recorded higher highs and higher lows, which are typical characteristics of a bullish market.
“This can’t be a bear market,” Johanning explained. “These elements underscore a fundamental bias crucial for assuming that the current drop is part of a broader bull market trend. Therefore, Bitcoin will eventually find a local bottom and ascend higher.”
Bitcoin Price Analysis: What To Expect Next?Johanning provided a detailed breakdown of possible future scenarios based on technical analysis. His first scenario is based on the monthly chart where the most crucial level is at $48,000-$49,000. This level is key because it was a major hurdle overcome in February 2024. Now, it might serve as the perfect point for a bullish retest.
Furthermore, there’s a significant market imbalance down to the $48,000-$49,000 range, coinciding with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the last monthly swing low. This setup suggests a strong potential for price stabilization and reversal at this level, according to Johanning.
The second scenario grounds on the weekly chart where the important level is at $52,000. This level acts as a major high time frame support/resistance, marked by a weekly imbalance that extends up to $52,000, and it matches the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the bottom to the top of the last major rally, and the 0.618 level from the last swing low to the top.
The third scenario is based on the lower timeframes. Here, the most significant level is at $57,000. This mark is critical as it represents the 0.5 Fibonacci level from the last swing low and was a key area during the February climb. This level might serve as the stage for a potential deviation or price trap.
“The recent bearish engulfing pattern breaking the monthly levels, followed by a bearish retest, signals significant market shifts,” noted Johanning. “If Bitcoin swiftly reclaims these key levels, particularly the $57,000 mark, we could see a deviation scenario unfold. Otherwise, the $52,000 or $48,000-$49,000 levels will likely be tested, each representing a higher low in the ongoing uptrend.”
Impact on Altcoins And Market StrategyAltcoins have displayed remarkable resilience in the face of Bitcoin’s volatility, which Johanning finds particularly promising. “Usually, a significant drop in Bitcoin accompanied by a loss of a higher time frame range would lead to severe declines in altcoins. However, their strength yesterday is a good indicator that the worst may be over for altcoins,” he commented.
Johanning concluded his analysis with an optimistic outlook for both Bitcoin and altcoins, expressing confidence in the continuation of the bull market. He is actively accumulating more at current prices, anticipating substantial returns: “No matter which scenario plays out, I am committed to this trend until proven otherwise. I’m investing heavily, and if we truly remain in a bull market, the potential for profit is tremendous.”
At press time, BTC traded at $58,328.
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