The Bitcoin price performance in 2024 is one for the history books, with the premier cryptocurrency crossing the $100,000 mark for the first time ever. However, hitting this milestone opened the door to another conversation — when will the market top be in?

As a result, several predictions of the Bitcoin price top have emerged from the crypto crowd over the past few weeks. The latest on-chain observation suggests that the market might not have peaked or might not be close to a peak just yet. 

In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym CryptoOnChain explained how whale behavior and movements could help identify the top for the Bitcoin market. The relevant metric here is the realized profit ratio, which measures to ratio at which an investor cohort is exiting the market.

The “realized profit ratio” metric calculates the proportion of coins sold at a profit relative to the total volume of transactions. A high value for this metric signals that the market is nearing its peak, with participants beginning to offload their assets for profit.

A low realized profit ratio, on the other hand, shows that fewer market participants are selling their bags for profit. This often signals sustained investor confidence and faith in the further price growth of a cryptocurrency.

According to CryptoOnChain, the realized profit ratio for various cohorts of Bitcoin whales (holding between 10 to 100, 100 to 1,000, and 1,000 to 10,000 BTC) is notably lower compared to the last cycles. As observed in the chart below, it appears that the whales are yet to begin profit-taking.

This suggests that the Bitcoin whales, who are influential market entities, believe that the premier cryptocurrency is yet to reach its peak in the cycle. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price sits just beneath $102,000, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours.

Another data point seems to support the notion that market participants are currently holding out for higher gains. Prominent crypto pundit Ali Martinez took to the X platform to share that significant amounts of Bitcoin have been flowing out of centralized exchanges in the past few days.

Over 40,000 BTC (worth around $3.92 billion) were sent out of exchanges over the past week. This movement of assets to non-custodial wallets indicates rising confidence amongst investors, with a focus on the long-term promise rather than quick short-term gains.

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