Bitcoin has already lost more than half of its value from its October 2025 all-time high near $126,272, and the latest BTC price action still leaves one uncomfortable question open. The drop to around $59,700 may feel deep enough, although cycle history, ETF selling, macro pressure, and some analysis point to a market that may still need one final washout before a real bottom forms.

Bitcoin’s current decline did not appear from nowhere. The post-halving cycle that started after April 2024 carried BTC through 2024 and into a major peak in late 2025. Once that peak arrived, Bitcoin began following a familiar script seen after the 2017 and 2021 tops.

The first driver is the cycle itself. Bitcoin often stretches too far during the final phase of a bull market. After that, the market snaps back as late buyers sell, leverage breaks, and confidence disappears.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs became another major pressure point. These products helped fuel the move higher during the bull run because issuers had to buy real BTC when institutions added money. That same machine now works in reverse. June 2026 alone brought about $6.4 billion in ETF outflows, which forced more Bitcoin selling into a weak market.

Capital rotation made the problem worse. AI and semiconductor stocks pulled major risk money toward Nvidia, TSMC, and other AI names. Bitcoin competes for that same high risk capital, so BTC lost an important source of buyers.

Macro conditions have not helped either. Strong U.S. jobs data has kept rate cut hopes under pressure, and higher rates make cash and bonds more attractive than risk assets. Regulatory uncertainty around the CLARITY Act has also left some large buyers waiting for clearer rules.

Liquidations then made the BTC price drop faster. Leveraged long positions were wiped out as Bitcoin broke key levels, and long term holders also took profits after years of gains.

Finance Freeman, a YouTube analyst, said Bitcoin has followed the bear flag breakdowns he had been tracking on live streams. His main BTC price target sits near the 786 Fibonacci retracement zone, which he placed around $45,000 to $50,000.

The analyst said he plans to start dollar cost averaging around $50,000, with heavier buying closer to $45,000. His view is that crypto has already handled much of its own internal selling pressure, although stocks and the U.S. dollar can still drag Bitcoin lower.

Finance Freeman also pointed to the U.S. Dollar Index as a key headwind. A stronger dollar usually hurts risk assets because investors need fewer dollars to buy the same assets. He said the DXY breakout could push toward 106, and that move could keep pressure on Bitcoin, BTC, and other crypto assets.

His broader timing view is more hopeful. Finance Freeman believes the market is closer to the end than the beginning. He said crypto and stocks could bottom around September or October 2026, then spend the Christmas period in a slower consolidation phase before a better setup appears in 2027.

The Bitcoin 4 year cycle gives another reason why the bear market may not be over yet. Bitcoin’s halving reduces new supply every 4 years, and past cycles have often moved through a similar order.

First comes the halving. Next comes the bull peak. After that, the bear market begins as buyers from the top exit the market. The final phase is accumulation, where BTC trades flat and stronger hands begin to build positions again.

This cycle places Bitcoin in Phase 3 right now, which is the bear market phase. The next phase would be accumulation, although the chart still needs evidence that selling pressure has faded.

The historical baseline points to a bottom between July and December 2026. That would place the bottom around 2 to 2.5 years after the April 2024 halving and around 12 to 18 months after the late 2025 peak.

Finance Freeman’s $45,000 to $50,000 zone may be the first major area to watch, although deeper cycle math leaves another risk open. Previous Bitcoin bear markets have often produced 70% to 80% drawdowns from the peak.

A 70% decline from the $126,272 all time high would place BTC near $38,000. An 80% decline would place Bitcoin closer to $25,000. That creates a broad risk zone where the $30,000 region cannot be ignored if the bear market becomes more severe.

The long term Bitcoin chart also supports this possibility. BTC has bounced from a rising trendline across multiple cycles, and that trendline now points closer to the $35,000 region. That does not guarantee the price must fall there, although it lines up with the deeper bear market range.

The BTC price may be closer to the end of the bear market than the start, although the final bottom may still sit below current levels. A move toward $45,000 to $50,000 would match Finance Freeman’s target, while a deeper cycle reset could take Bitcoin toward $35,000 or even the $30,000 zone.

Read Also: Top Analyst Says Shiba Inu Is Dead, Never Coming Back as SHIB Whales Dump Trillions of Tokens

Every cycle is unique, and crypto can change direction faster than most markets. Bullish events, ETF stabilization, clearer regulation, or rate cut expectations could alter the path quickly.

Bitcoin is dropping primarily due to a combination of persistent ETF outflows, macroeconomic interest rate fears, and a broader investor shift toward AI and tech stocks. The digital asset market has faced significant pressure, dragging valuations below key psychological levels like $60,000. 

While a drop to $10,000 is technically possible, market analysts consider it an extreme tail-risk event rather than a consensus expectation. For Bitcoin to reach $10,000, it would need to fall roughly 85% to 90% from its current levels, which would require an unprecedented macroeconomic collapse.

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The post When Will Bitcoin Bear Market End? Why BTC Price Worst Drop May Still Lie Ahead appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.

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