2023-5-17 12:45 |
Quick Take The average Federal Funds Rate from 1955-01-01 to 2023-05-17 is 4.62%. We are now in a normal regime of interest rates. The issue now becomes the total debt to GDP — which is roughly 120% — so as rates stay elevated, it will cost more to service the interest. As it becomes more expensive to service the debt, this will eat into other sectors and shrink their pie, such as health care and education, and society will break down further. Looking out to FY 2032. interest costs are projected to hit $1.2 trillion, which will be the largest expenditure program, surpassing Medicaid ($789 billion) and defense ($990 billion). The only way would be to grow GDP ahead of the debt securities and liabilities, but that looks extremely unlikely — especially with an aging population and declining population. GDP vs. interest: (Source: FRED) Fed Funds: (Source: FRED)
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