2024-10-12 01:58 |
SVET Markets Weekly Update – October 7–11, 2024
On Week 41, stocks reached new highs as investors reacted to inflation data. Oil prices climbed due to Middle East tensions. The dollar strengthened, while the Euro weakened. Crypto followed stocks, with BTC rising but ETH remaining relatively stable.
Monday
On Monday, equities tumbled as investors now assign a 95% chance of a 25 basis point cut in November. Globally, crude oil climbed to a six-week high, while steel prices reached their highest level in three months, as the dollar remained elevated due to the rising threat of global conflicts. Meanwhile, BTC and ETH stayed unchanged from their post-drop levels of approximately $62K and $2.4K amid a lack of corporate investor interest driven by political uncertainty.
Details
Consumer credit increased by $8.93B in August, following an upwardly revised $26.63B jump in the prior month, and below market expectations of a $12 billion rise. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1 percent.
Crypto
Elon Musk believes Polymarket could more accurately predict the presidential election than traditional polling. He recently gave a speech supporting Trump, who is leading Harris (51 to 48) in the polls according to Polymarket.
World Markets
Retail Sales in the Euro Area increased 0.80 percent in August MoM.
Currencies
The dollar index held around 102.5 after surging half a percent in the previous session following a stronger-than-expected jobs report (254K vs. 140K expected), while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Markets now see around a 95% chance of a more modest 25 bps rate cut in November.
Commodities
WTI crude oil futures climbed to $77.1 per barrel, a six-week high, as tensions in the Middle East escalate. Investors are focused on whether Israel will respond to last week’s Iranian missile attack.
Steel rebar futures surged 7% to CNY 3,420 per tonne in the last session of September, the highest in three months, amid an improved construction input outlook after key Chinese cities relaxed home-buying curbs.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, equities are up; nine out of the 11 S&P sectors ended higher, led by technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary. Oil dropped on risks-overestimates, as rubber reached a 7-year high on China stimulus and uranium rose to its highest in a month on expected supply cuts. BTC and ETH lingered at week’s old levels of $62K and $2.4K.
Details
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 91.5 in September from 91.2 in August, missing forecasts of 91.7. The Uncertainty Index rose 11 points to 103, the highest reading recorded. Fifty-one percent of owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, down five points from August.
The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index increased by 0.8 points to 46.9 in October 2024, the highest since April 2023. Sentiment has been on the rise for four consecutive months, though it remains entrenched in negative territory.
Crypto
Solana leads Q3 2024 in bridged net inflows. Ethereum retains market dominance but underperforms. Aptos challenges Solana with GameFi.
World Markets
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 4.75% during its October 2024 policy meeting, marking the second consecutive rate cut and aligning with market expectations. New Zealand’s annual inflation rate eased to 3.3% in Q2 2024, from 4% in the previous quarter.
Industrial production in Argentina fell by 6.9% YoY in August, marking the fifteenth consecutive month of contraction.
Commodities
WTI crude oil futures fell by 4.6% to $73.5 per barrel on Tuesday, as anticipated supply disruptions stemming from geopolitical risks in the Middle East have not yet materialized.
Uranium rose to $82 per pound in October, the highest in over a month, as risks to supply coincided with robust power demand for major nuclear energy producers.
Rubber futures traded around 210 cents per kg, holding close to a recent over 7–1/2-year high of 214 US cents per kg, on the back of China’s massive stimulus measures.
Wednesday
On Wednesday, stocks hit new records as investors react to Fed minutes and inflation data. Tech giants lead market higher, offsetting concerns over Alphabet’s potential divestiture. Dollar index increased to 8-day high as traders predict smaller rate cut. BTC and ETH dropped briefly but returned to $63K and $2.4K.
Details
Mortgage rates rise to 6.36%, highest since August, as Treasury yields increase, reflecting investor belief that the Fed won’t lower interest rates as swiftly. Jumbo loan rates climb to 6.64% and FHA-backed mortgage rates rise to 6.22%.
World Markets
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark policy repo rate at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive meeting in October 2024, aligning with market expectations but tweaked its policy stance to neutral, opening the door for rate cuts amid early signs of a growth slowdown in the economy.
Currencies
Dollar index surges to 8-session high as traders predict smaller 25bps Fed rate cut. Policymakers divided on rate cut size, reinforcing Fed’s view on economic outlook. Traders await CPI and PPI data.
Thursday
On Thursday, stocks ended mixed after a higher-than-expected core inflation report increased uncertainty over the Fed’s rate decision. Fed remains divided on rate cuts as initial jobless claims reached a 14-month high. Oil and the dollar are in their second week of rallying amid worsening geopolitics. BTC dipped below $60K, while ETH continues to linger around $2.4K.
Details
Unemployment claims rise to 258K, highest in 14 months, driven by Michigan and hurricane-affected states. Annual inflation slows to 2.4% in September, lowest since February 2021, but above forecasts. Core inflation unexpectedly rises to 3.3%, driven by services and shelter costs.
Crypto
Spot ETH ETFs have struggled to match the demand seen in spot bitcoin ETFs. Factors such as the absence of staking yield and the complex marketing of ETH hinder investor interest. While BTC ETFs garnered nearly $19B in inflows over ten months, ether ETFs, launched in July, have faced $556M in net outflows.
World Markets
In September, Argentina’s consumer prices rose by 3.5% MoM, the lowest since November 2021, after a 4.2% increase in August. YoY, prices surged by 209%, marking the fifth month of disinflation.
Currencies
The dollar index remained around 102.9, poised for its second consecutive weekly gain as recent economic data and central bank cues influenced traders’ expectations regarding Fed interest rate cuts.
Friday
On Friday, equities rallied, driven by strong bank earnings and a positive economic outlook. Meanwhile, producers’ (PPI) inflation remained unchanged as consumer price index (CPI) rose, creating uncertainty about Fed rate cuts. The dollar reached a 2-month high as Indian industrial production declined for the first time since 2022. Crypto traders followed stocks, with BTC jumping to 64K but ETH remaining around 2.4K.
Details
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment dropped to 68.9 in October, lower than expectations, with current conditions and expectations both weakening. Inflation expectations rose slightly for the year ahead but eased for the five-year outlook.
Factory gate prices (PPI) held steady in September, below expectations, while service prices rose. Annual producer price inflation eased to 1.8%, with core inflation increasing to 2.8%, exceeding forecasts.
Crypto
Liberland, a micronation seeking recognition between Croatia and Serbia, operates under a unique on-chain governance system. Newly appointed Prime Minister Justin Sun aims to establish it as the “freest nation,” boosting interest and causing the Liberland Dollar to surge over 200%.
World Markets
India’s industrial production fell by 0.1% YoY in August 2024, marking its first decline since October 2022, primarily due to a 4.3% drop in mining and a 3.7% reduction in electricity output.
The Bank of Korea cut its base rate to 3.25%, the first time in nearly two years, due to easing inflation and weakening economic output.
Currencies
The Euro weakened to 2-month low (around $1.09), influenced by dollar strength and expectations of slow Fed rate cuts. The ECB is anticipated to lower rates further, while Eurozone inflation fell to 1.8%, the lowest since April 2021.
The dollar index approached 103, its highest in nearly two months, amid economic data suggesting persistent inflation.
Commodities
Gold rose above $2,640 per ounce as traders reacted to mixed economic data,
SVET Markets Weekly Update – September 23–27, 2024
On Week 39, stocks closed in positive territory, helped by a 3% GDP growth in Q3. In contrast, the eurozone economy contracted in September. The People’s Bank of China has implemented several drastic measures to stimulate growth leading to the Chinese stock market having its best week since 2008. Silver prices surged to a 12-year high due to the Fed easing and geopolitical tensions. BTC crossed the 200MA and continued to test the $66K mark, while ETH remained stuck below $2.7K.
Monday
On Monday, stocks reached new highs yet again. Intel shares rose on investment news, while Tesla gained ahead of its robotaxi launch. Economic data, however, raised concerns about growth, with manufacturing at a 15-month low and job market indicators weakening. Internationally, the EU economy contracted sharply, while gold, natural gas, and coffee all rose due to a combination of geopolitical and climatic factors. ETH took the lead, slowly rising to 2.7K, while BTC stalled just under its 200MA.
Details
The manufacturing sector continued to shrink in September, with new orders falling at the fastest pace in over a year. This led to lower production, slower delivery times, and job cuts. Input prices declined to a six-month low due to lower energy costs and reduced supply chain pressures.
World Markets
The eurozone economy contracted in September, with manufacturing and service sectors both declining. Germany and France are heavily affected after the “Olympics effect” dissipated. New orders, backlogs, and exports fell, while job losses rose. Input costs slowed, but output prices increased slightly.
Commodities
Natural gas prices rose to their highest level in nearly two months due to potential supply disruptions from a tropical storm and lower-than-expected storage increases. Gold prices made a new record high, propelled by expectations of lower interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions. Arabica coffee prices reached 13-year highs due to dry weather in Brazil, the world’s largest producer.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, markets edged up, lifted by Nvidia’s surge, despite consumer confidence dipping to a 3-year low and the Richmond manufacturing sector dropping to its lowest level since May 2020. Internationally, Chinese stocks skyrocketed thanks to lavish CCP stimulus. Silver prices also soared over 5%, catching up to gold as investors sought a safe haven. BTC and ETH remained largely unchanged, continuing to demonstrate some upward potential.
Details
The manufacturing sector in the Richmond 5th District contracted further in September. It is the steepest decline since May 2020, with shipments, employment, and new orders all declining. However, firms remained optimistic about future prospects, expecting improvements in shipments and new orders in the coming months.
World Markets
The PBoC has taken several drastic steps to stimulate the economy, including cutting interest rates and reserve requirements. These measures aim to boost lending, lower borrowing costs, and increase investment.
Wednesday
On Wednesday, stocks were mixed, with energy stocks declining while tech stocks gained, led by Nvidia, Intel, and AMD, suggesting strong AI demand. Internationally, the Euro rose to a 14-month high on Fed easing and China stimulus, while Argentina’s economy shrank less than expected. BTC and ETH stalled around $63K and $2.5K.
Details
The number of building permits issued in the US increased slightly in August MoM. Most regions saw increases, with the Midwest experiencing the largest jump. However, the West saw a slight decline.
Commodities
Despite the growing cryptocurrency adoption, its use as a payment method remains low. Silver prices surged over 5%, reaching levels not seen since May, driven by geopolitical tensions and US interest rate cut expectations.
Thursday
On Thursday, stocks were mixed, with the S&P reaching a new ATH before closing in red, while the Dow gained slightly. Semiconductor stocks performed well. Internationally, silver reached a 12-year high, while the Euro area money supply reached a new record. BTC and ETH lingered below $66K and $2.6K.
Details
Factory orders unexpectedly held steady in August, defying expectations of a decline. Orders for transportation equipment fell, but those for fabricated metal products and machinery increased.
World Markets
The Euro Area’s money supply reached a new record of 16.4 trillion euros in August 2024, marking an all-time high.
Commodities
Silver prices surged to a 12-year high, fueled by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Fed and stimulus measures in China.
Friday
On Friday, stocks closed mixed, with the S&P and Nasdaq falling slightly, while the Dow reached a new record. Investors weighed recent mixed data. BTC crossed the 200MA and continued to test $66K, while ETH is still stuck under $2.7K.
Details
The PCE price index rose 2.2% in August, the lowest since February 2021. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 70.1 in September, the highest in five months.
World Markets
China’s stock market had its best week since 2008 after policy announcements aimed at boosting economic growth.
Commodities
Hurricane Helene caused a surge in natural gas prices. Despite the storm’s impact, LNG exports remained strong, supporting prices.
On Week 40, key growth, inflation, and spending figures, plus earnings from major companies, will be released. Europe and Asia will publish manufacturing and services data. Key countries such as Germany, Japan, and China will release their PMI data.
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest in your bright future without hassle. For more reports: https://evernomics.com/
SVET Markets Weekly Update (September 16–20, 2024)
On Week 38, stocks posted gains after the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut. Accordingly, gold prices surged, reaching a new ATH, buoyed by the Fed’s easing measures. In contrast, the Central Banks of China and Japan held rates steady. In the crypto market, BTC initially rose but faced resistance at its 200-day moving average, retreating to around $63K. ETH followed a similar trend but moved more slowly, barely reaching $2.6K before pulling back.
Monday
On Monday, stocks traded mixed, with investors awaiting the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. The Dow hit a new ATH, while expectations for a larger rate cut increased, and the energy and financial sectors outperformed as chipmaker stocks fell. Internationally, gold reached a new ATH again, while silver jumped to $31. Meanwhile, BTC and ETH returned to their bearish ranges of $57K and $2.3K after a short-lived attempt at recovery initiated by MicroStrategy’s $1B buy-in.
Details
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly rose in September to 11.5 — the highest in 2 years — indicating a growth in business activity for the first time in nearly a year. New orders and shipments increased, while labor market conditions remained soft. Firms’ optimism about future conditions improved, but capital spending declined.
Crypto
High-net-worth families in North America, Asia Pacific, and Europe are expected to significantly increase their wealth over the next decade by growing their fortunes from $5.5 trillion today to $9.5 trillion in 2030. North American families are projected to experience the largest growth, with their wealth increasing by 258% from $1.12 trillion in 2019 to $4 trillion in 2030. Asia Pacific families are expected to see their wealth grow by 208%, from $650 billion to $2 trillion. Meanwhile, European families are projected to increase their wealth by 157%, from $1.1 trillion to $2.8 trillion. Ultra-high-net-worth individuals are typically defined as those with investable assets of at least $30 million.
World Markets
Hourly labor costs in the Euro Area rose by 4.7% in Q2 2024, down from 5% in Q1. Wage growth slowed, while non-wage costs increased. Construction, industry, and services saw significant labor cost increases. Germany, France, and Italy experienced moderate rises, while Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania recorded substantial increases.
Turkish motor vehicle production fell sharply in August 2024, down 26.7% from the previous year. This decline marks the lowest production level since August 1980. Overall, car production in Turkey has averaged 51,550 units per month since 1974, with a record high of 163,460 units in November 2017.
Peru’s economy grew significantly (+4.47%) in July YoY, driven by strong manufacturing, mining, and construction sectors. Other sectors like utilities, fishing, and telecommunications also expanded. However, agriculture declined due to adverse weather conditions and early harvesting. Overall, the economy grew by 2.78% in the first seven months of 2024.
Commodities
Gold prices reached a new record high (2590), driven by a weaker dollar, lower bond yields, and growing expectations for a significant US interest rate cut. The Fed is likely to cut rates by 50 basis points, according to market expectations. This follows recent economic data showing a softening labor market and declining inflation. The ECB’s rate cut also supported gold prices.
Silver prices surged to a two-month high (31), driven by rising expectations of a more aggressive Fed rate cut. Market sentiment shifted towards a larger 50 basis point cut, influenced by signs of a slowing labor market and weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, stocks traded flat to the red as investors awaited the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow. The market is divided on the size of the expected rate cut (25 or 50 points). Mega-cap stocks showed mixed performance. Retail sales unexpectedly rose in August, defying expectations. Internationally, the economic sentiment for the Euro Area dropped to an eleven-month low. BTC and ETH attempted to surge yet again, with BTC reaching above $60K, where it was met by strong bear resistance, unlikely to soften before political uncertainties ease.
Details
Retail sales rose slightly in August, defying expectations of a decline. Sales increased in various categories, including miscellaneous stores, nonstore retailers, and health and personal care stores. However, sales fell in sectors like gasoline stations, electronics, and food. Excluding certain categories, retail sales rose 0.3% in August. YoY retail sales rose 2.1% in August compared to the previous year, following a revised 2.9% increase in July.
Crypto
65 countries are actively exploring CBDCs. All G20 nations are involved, with 19 in advanced stages. 44 countries are piloting CBDCs, a 22% increase from the previous year. This global trend is driven by declining cash usage and concerns about cryptocurrencies and tech giants’ influence on money creation.
World Markets
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Euro Area continued to decline in September, reaching an eleven-month low. This reflects growing uncertainty about the economy and monetary policies. Analysts are divided on the outlook, with more expecting no change or a deterioration. The current economic situation and inflation expectations have also worsened.
Japan’s trade deficit narrowed in August, but remained above expectations. Exports increased for the ninth consecutive month, but at a slower pace than forecast. Imports grew at the slowest rate in five months, falling short of estimates.
India’s trade deficit widened to $29.7 billion in August, the highest in ten months. Exports declined by 9.3%, while imports increased by 3.3%. Rising shipping costs and a slowdown in China are impacting exports.
Mongolia’s trade surplus narrowed in August, primarily due to a surge in imports, particularly of vehicles, machinery, and appliances. Exports grew at a slower pace, led by sales of natural stones and precious metals. China was Mongolia’s largest trading partner (exports — 91.9%, imports — 40.2%; Russian exports — 25%).
Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed in August despite a surge in exports. Exports to major markets like the US, Japan, ASEAN, and the EU grew significantly. However, imports also rose due to government import duties. For the year, Indonesia’s trade balance remains positive but has declined compared to the previous year.
Commodities
Sugar prices have risen (20) due to lower production in Brazil and rising oil prices. While India’s large crop and Thailand’s production challenges have influenced prices, overall global supply concerns remain.
Palladium prices hit a five-month high (1040), driven by increased ETF holdings, primarily due to rising European demand. Analysts predict that palladium prices may face downward pressure in the long term due to potential decreases in global vehicle production and the substitution of palladium with platinum in autocatalysts.
On Wednesday, stocks finished lower after the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points. While the initial market reaction was positive — during which the S&P hit a new ATH (5692) — Powell’s comments tempered optimism. Overall, investors remain cautious despite the aggressive rate cut, as the Fed hinted at a slower pace of future cuts. Tech stocks, including Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, and AMD, declined, while Apple gained. Internationally, many smaller central banks, which are overly dependent on the dollar in their oil trade, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait, cut their rates in unison with the Fed by 25 to 50 basis points. BTC jumped above $61K but quickly retreated due to short-lived investor optimism about the Fed’s jumbo rate cut, while ETH remained unperturbed.
Details
The Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5%, marking the first rate reduction since the pandemic. They forecast further rate cuts in the coming years to slow inflation. While inflation projections were lowered, economic growth forecasts were slightly reduced. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly.
Crypto
Bhutan has secretly amassed significantly more BTC than El Salvador, making it a major player in the crypto space. While El Salvador has been publicly embracing BTC, Bhutan has quietly accumulated 13,029 BTC (compare to 2,381 BTC accumulated by El Salvador), valued at over $758 million. This revelation highlights Bhutan’s growing influence in the crypto world and suggests a broader trend of nations adopting cryptocurrency.
World Markets
Eurozone inflation slowed to a two-year low (2.2% from 2.6%) in August, primarily due to lower energy prices. Core inflation also declined slightly (2.8% from 2.9%). Most major economies saw inflation rates decrease with sharp drops observed in Germany (2% vs 2.6%) and France (2.2% vs 2.7%), but a few smaller countries experienced increases (Latvia, Malta, Finland, and Slovakia). The ECB forecasts inflation to remain above its target for the next few years.
On Week 39, will feature inflation data, consumer spending, and Fed speeches. Globally, PMI data, interest rate decisions, and inflation reports will be released for various countries.
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest in your bright future without hassle. For more reports: https://evernomics.com/
SVET Markets Weekly Update – September 9th –13th, 2024
On Week 37, stocks continued to rise, driven by strong performance in the tech and semiconductor sectors. Economic data, including inflation and the PPI, indicated signs of easing, bolstering expectations for a 50-point rate cut by the Fed. Internationally, gold reached a new ATH, and silver surged above USD 30 amid concerns about a slowing economy and potential rate cuts. BTC and ETH faced challenges in maintaining their positions ahead of the presidential debate. As investors anticipated a better performance from Trump, demand for digital assets slumped, causing BTC to dip below 57K. Meanwhile, ETH struggled to hold above 2.3K. However, both cryptocurrencies surged following MicroStrategy’s announcement of a USD 1B BTC purchase.
Monday
On Monday, stocks attempted to rebound after a rough week, driven by investor optimism about lower prices and a potential rate cut. Investors are now focused on Wednesday’s inflation data to gauge the Fed’s upcoming policy decision on September 18. Internationally, the Chinese yuan weakened as the latest inflation data showed weak economic performance despite the CPC’s efforts. BTC crossed above 57K, while ETH lingers above 2.3k, continuing to lag significantly behind BTC after three consecutive “red” months — the worst performance for ETH since 2018. In other news, El Salvador is marking the third anniversary of its BTC holdings, with more than 25% overall profits on its 5,800 BTC holding, placing it third in the world among governments.
Details
Consumer credit surged by 25.45B in July, exceeding expectations (12.5). Credit card balances and other loans both saw significant increases, indicating strong demand for credit despite economic concerns.
Crypto
El Salvador made its first BTC purchase on September 6, 2021, shortly before adopting BTC as legal tender. Since then, the country has significantly increased its BTC holdings. As of now, El Salvador owns over 5,800 BTC, with substantial profits (25.88% gain). The country is currently the third-largest government holder of BTC globally.
World Markets
Japan’s GDP grew by 0.7% at a stronger pace in Q2 2024 than previously expected, mainly due to higher wages and a recovery in the automotive industry. While private consumption and business investment increased, government spending and net trade contributed less to the growth.
Taiwan’s exports surged 16.8% in August, driven by strong sales of technology products. Shipments to the US, ASEAN, Europe, and China & Hong Kong all increased significantly. Overall, exports for the first eight months of 2024 were up 10.9% compared to the previous year.
Currencies
The dollar remained relatively stable as investors weighed the potential for a Fed interest rate cut on the upcoming September 18 meeting. The recent jobs report showed mixed results, with fewer jobs added than expected but a lower unemployment rate and steady wage growth. Investors will closely watch inflation data this week for more clues on the Fed’s decision.
The Chinese yuan weakened against the dollar (7.11) as inflation data revealed a modest increase in consumer prices but a sharper decline in producer prices. This indicates a challenging economic environment for China, with weak domestic demand and slowing growth.
Commodities
Natural gas prices dropped 4% due to an incoming storm expected to reduce demand in Louisiana. The storm could cause power outages and disrupt LNG exports. While past hurricanes impacted supply, today’s storms mainly affect demand as most US gas comes from inland sources. Oversupply and mild winter weather have also contributed to lower prices. Production cuts have helped stabilize prices.
Comment: What’s Up With Japan?
The Japanese yen has slipped toward 143 per dollar; however, it remains far from the record highs of 300 reached during the peak of Japan’s economic miracle in the 1980s, before the Plaza Accord, which devastated Japanese manufacturing.
Recently, the Japan Stock Market Index (JP225) achieved an all-time high (ATH) above 40,000, driven by a continuing appreciation of Japanese assets. Notably, this rise in asset values has not been accompanied by corresponding GDP growth, which has consistently stayed below 2% — a stark contrast to the impressive 8% growth experienced during the 1980s boom.
Traditionally, Japan’s unemployment rate has been very low, ranging from 2% to 3%, and was even below 2% during the 1980s. The rate tends to reach a maximum of approximately 5% during times of crisis, such as between 2007 and 2010. This low unemployment situation indicates a limited pool of additional labor resources available for Japanese entrepreneurs to enhance local productivity.
In terms of inflation, Japan has also historically maintained low annual rates. As of July 2024, the inflation rate was recorded at 2.8%. However, this is significantly lower than the peak inflation rates of around 25% in the 1970s and 10% in the 1980s. The Japanese central bank has sustained a very loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates below 1% since the 1990s, compared to an 8% rate in the 1980s. Despite this accommodative policy, economic growth has remained elusive.
Business confidence in Japan has been notably weak, rarely surpassing the 20 mark and remaining mostly below zero since the 1990s. Similarly, consumer confidence has been on a downward trend on average since the 1980s, declining from a level of 50 to recent figures of approximately 20 to 30.
In summary, the Japanese economy serves as a poignant example of how countries with limited natural resources but high-value human capital and excellent technological capabilities can mismanage their economic potential. This mismanagement is often driven by ingrained nationalistic tendencies and overly conservative political attitudes that shy away from “risky” initiatives and revolutionary social and political reforms.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, stocks traded mixed, with tech stocks outperforming banking shares as investors reacted to lower earnings expectations. The market awaited a crucial inflation report that could influence Fed rate cuts. Internationally, China’s car sales declined amid an ongoing economic slowdown. BTC strengthened its position slightly prior to the presidential debate, as investors anticipated Trump’s better performance and fueled demand for digital assets. However, BTC trading fluctuated based on how well the debates were unfolding, dipping below 57K. Meanwhile, ETH continued to struggle to maintain a price above 2.3K.
Details
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 91.2 in August, its lowest level in three months. Inflation remains a major concern for small business owners, as sales expectations decline and costs rise. Uncertainty among owners is increasing, and fewer expect improved business conditions in the future.
Crypto
Wealth advisers (as opposed to TradeFi) are rapidly adopting BTC ETFs, despite their overall flows being overshadowed by other investors. BlackRock’s BTC ETF has attracted significant inflows.
World Markets
China’s car sales declined YoY by 5.0% in August but outperformed expectations. New energy vehicle sales continued to grow strongly, accounting for nearly half of total car sales. Overall, vehicle sales for the first eight months of 2024 increased slightly.
The Reuters Tankan sentiment index for Japanese manufacturers declined to +4 in September due to concerns about sluggish Chinese demand and a global electric vehicle slowdown. Manufacturers anticipate further deterioration in sentiment over the next three months.
Brazil’s inflation rate slowed in August to 4.24%, falling below expectations. Prices for transportation, housing, health, and personal expenses declined, while food prices rose.
Currencies
The Brazilian real weakened past 5.66 against the dollar due to a stronger dollar and concerns about Brazil’s fiscal policy. Inflation eased slightly in August, but rising inflationary pressures have prompted the central bank to maintain a hawkish stance. Political tensions have also impacted the currency, contributing to economic uncertainty.
Commodities
Urals oil prices fell sharply to a four-week low of 66 due to concerns about rising oil supply. Libya’s potential oil production resumption and OPEC’s planned output increase are adding pressure to prices.
Wednesday
On Wednesday, stocks rallied, led by tech stocks, as inflation eased. The S&P and Nasdaq surged, with chipmakers driving the gains. However, core inflation rose, suggesting a smaller Fed rate cut. Internationally, the British economy stagnated for the second month in a row as Chinese stocks approached their yearly lows. Meanwhile, BTC and ETH continued to dip after Trump’s lackluster performance during the debate.
Details
Inflation slowed in August to a 3-year low of 2.5% (from 2.9). Energy prices fell, while food and transportation inflation eased. However, shelter costs rose. Core inflation remained steady, but monthly core inflation increased slightly.
Thursday
On Thursday, stocks continued to rise, fueled by strong performance in the tech and semiconductor sectors. Economic data, including the PPI, showed signs of easing inflation, supporting expectations for a 25-point rate cut by the Fed. Globally, gold reached a new ATH, while silver surged due to China’s revised green technology prospects. BTC and ETH remained at 58K and 2.3K, respectively, suppressed by political uncertainties.
Details
Factory gate prices (PPI) rose slightly in August, driven by increases in services costs. Producer price inflation slowed year-over-year, but core inflation increased slightly.
Friday
On Friday, stocks continued to rise on momentum, fueled by expectations of a 50-basis-point Fed rate cut due to lower inflation and rising unemployment. Tech and semiconductor stocks led the rally. Internationally, gold reached a new ATH while silver surged past 30 as industrial production in the Eurozone declined. BTC climbed above 60K, while ETH broke past 2.4, following MicroStrategy’s announcement of purchasing 1B worth of BTC.
Details
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose in September, reaching its highest point since May. Consumers’ optimism about future financial conditions and the economy improved, while inflation expectations for the coming year declined.
Crypto
PolitiFi meme coins, inspired by political figures, have experienced a significant price drop after a strong first half of 2024. Despite the upcoming US elections and growing political interest in crypto, these tokens have lost nearly 90% of their peak value.
World Markets
Industrial production in the Eurozone fell by 2.2% in July YoY. This marks a decline from the average growth rate of 0.89% since 1991. Chinese banks increased lending in August but remained below expectations. The Russian ruble weakened past 91 as the central bank raised interest rates to combat rising inflation.
Commodities
Gold hit a record high (2580) due to a weaker dollar and lower bond yields. Silver prices surged past 30 due to speculation of a larger-than-expected Fed rate cut.
On Week 38, investors will focus on the Fed meeting at Wed, Sept 18 as well as central banks worldwide announcing interest rate decisions. Economic data releases will focus on inflation, retail sales, manufacturing activity, housing indicators, and GDP growth.
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest in your bright future without hassle. For more reports: https://evernomics.com/
SVET Markets Weekly Update – September 2–6, 2024On Week 36, global stocks took a hit, driven by concerns about a weakening labor market and a slump in the tech sector. Locally, job cuts increased significantly, while the unemployment rate remained steady. Crude oil prices plummeted to a thirteen-month low amid fears of a global economic slowdown. In the Eurozone, private sector activity strengthened, except in Germany. BTC and ETH plunged, targeting 50K and 2K, respectively, as the Ethereum Foundation increased its selling activity.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, stocks plunged, led by technology and economic concerns, with Nvidia and other chipmakers suffering significant downs. Communication services stocks also underperformed. Weak factory data added to the market’s woes, raising concerns about the economy and Fed’s potential actions. Globally, crude oil prices dipped to a nine-month low due to a weakening world economy. Meanwhile, BTC is around 57.6K and ETH is around 2.4K, both continuing to show red, signaling bearish trends.
Details
The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose slightly in August but remained below 50, indicating continued contraction. New orders, production, and employment all declined, while input costs increased at a faster pace than expected. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are having a negative impact on the manufacturing sector.
Crypto
A poll shows that 50% of cryptocurrency holders intend to vote for Donald Trump, while only 38% favor Kamala Harris. Among non-crypto voters, Harris leads with 53% compared to Trump’s 41%. The survey indicates that 15% of voters own cryptocurrencies or NFTs, with a notable representation of young and racial minority groups among these users.
World Markets
The Brazilian economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, driven by increased consumer spending and government investment. However, net exports were a drag on growth due to higher imports and lower commodity prices. This stronger-than-expected performance may support the case for a rate hike by the Brazilian central bank.
Currencies
The dollar rose slightly as traders weighed economic data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI showed that factory activity continued to contract, raising concerns about the impact of interest rates. Investors are looking for more economic data to inform the Fed’s expected rate cut. The dollar gained against the Australian dollar but lost ground against the yen.
Commodities
Crude oil prices plunged to a nine-month-low, below 71, driven by weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data and lower oil demand in the U.S. and China. Meanwhile, OPEC signaled plans to increase production in the fourth quarter. Gold prices dipped below $2,500 as investors awaited economic data to gauge the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. While recent inflation data has tempered expectations for a significant cut, markets still anticipate a total of 100 bps in rate cuts this year. In Europe, the ECB is also expected to lower rates due to slowing inflation.
Wednesday
On Wednesday, stocks traded mixed but closed slightly in the green, correcting upward after Monday’s drop, the sharpest seen since early August. A decline in job openings to a four-year low raised expectations of a larger Fed rate cut. Energy and tech stocks underperformed. Globally, oil prices continue to drop due to fears of a global recession. BTC and ETH were almost unchanged, technically remaining bearish, with 50K and 1.7K as the next targets.
Details
Job openings declined in July for the first time in two years, falling to the lowest level since 2021. This decrease was primarily driven by fewer openings in healthcare, government, and transportation sectors. While hires and separations remained relatively stable, job quits decreased to a two-year low. Factory orders rebounded strongly in July, increasing by 5% and exceeding expectations. This growth was driven by a surge in durable goods orders, particularly for transportation equipment. However, excluding transportation, orders grew at a much slower pace. Despite all “re-shoring” rhetoric, the trade deficit widened in July to its highest level in two years. Exports reached a record high, but imports grew even faster, driven by technology goods and intellectual property. The deficits with China and Canada also expanded.
Crypto
El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, a strong supporter of BTC, has acknowledged that his cryptocurrency initiative hasn’t gone as intended. In a recent interview, Bukele admitted that “Bitcoin hasn’t had the widespread adoption we hoped for.”
World Markets
The Eurozone’s private sector activity strengthened in August for the sixth consecutive month, led by services. However, manufacturing remained weak, and new orders, employment, and business confidence declined. While input costs fell, output prices rose. France and Spain contributed to the overall improvement, while Germany experienced a second consecutive decline. The German private sector contracted at a faster pace in August, driven by a sharp decline in manufacturing. New business and exports fell significantly, while job cuts increased. Inflation rose slightly, but cost pressures eased. Business confidence weakened, particularly in manufacturing.
Commodities
Crude oil prices fell sharply, reaching the lowest level in 10 months (68). Concerns about rising supply, a potential deal to restart Libyan oil production, and weak economic data from China and the US contributed to the decline.
Thursday
On Thursday, stocks traded mixed as investors anticipated Friday’s employment report. Private payrolls data showed weaker-than-expected job growth, but falling unemployment claims provided some optimism. Overall, conflicting economic signals raised concerns about a potential recession and the Fed’s monetary policy. Internationally, the Eurozone construction sector continued to contract. BTC and ETH dropped marginally to 56K and 2.4K, reinforcing bearish sentiments.
Details
Job cuts surged in August, reaching a five-month high. Tech companies led the layoffs, reflecting growing economic uncertainty. This aligns with other indicators suggesting a softening labor market, supporting the case for lower interest rates. Initial unemployment claims decreased slightly but remained elevated compared to earlier this year. The decline suggests a marginally improving labor market, but it remains historically tight. Outstanding claims also fell, and the four-week moving average decreased. The ISM Services PMI rose slightly in August, surpassing expectations. While new orders and employment showed growth, production slowed, and the backlog of orders decreased. Prices continued to rise at a faster pace, driven by increased costs in various sectors.
Crypto
Private Telegram groups are not private anymore. The corresponding statement was removed today from TG FAQ. Telegram generates substantial revenue from cryptocurrency-related activities. Despite an overall loss, the company reported $342.5 million in revenue in 2023, with over 40% stemming from its cryptocurrency wallet and collectible sales.
World Markets
The Eurozone construction sector continued to contract in August, with new orders falling sharply. This led to a decline in activity, employment, and purchasing. All three segments of the construction sector experienced contractions, with housing and commercial construction seeing the steepest declines. While input prices rose slightly, inflation remained below long-term averages. Despite this, construction companies remain pessimistic about the future.
Friday
On Friday, stocks plunged due to concerns about a weakening labor market and tech sell-off. Major tech companies and chipmakers suffered significant downside. The August jobs report and Fed comments further fueled market anxiety, leading to the worst weekly performance since early 2023. Globally, oil dropped to its yearly lows on global economy slowdown concerns. BTC and ETH were followed by stocks preparing to test 50K and 2.0K, correspondingly, again.
Details
The unemployment rate decreased to 4.2% in August from 4.3% in the prior month, matching expectations. The number of unemployed people remained stable, with a slight decrease in temporary layoffs. Long-term unemployment persisted, accounting for over 20% of the unemployed.
Crypto
The Ethereum Foundation has substantial ETH reserves ($650 million worth of funds) but has been selling some (1K ETH just today) to fund operations and support the ecosystem. This has caused controversy within the community. Vitalik has also been selling Starknet tokens for similar reasons.
World Markets
The FAO Food Price Index declined in August, primarily due to lower cereal and sugar prices. Wheat prices fell amid weak demand and increased competition from Black Sea exports. Sugar prices dropped due to improved production prospects. Meat prices also decreased slightly. However, vegetable oil prices rose due to higher palm oil costs. Dairy prices increased due to strong import demand and limited supplies.
Commodities
WTI crude oil prices fell sharply this week due to OPEC+ delaying production increases, weak economic data in China and the U.S., and potential supply increases from Libya. However, a significant drop in U.S. oil inventories provided some support. Overall, oil prices experienced their worst weekly decline in months.
On Week 37, global investors will be closely watching local inflation data as well as that from Euro Area, China, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and India. Other important releases include the ECB interest rate decision as well as trade data, consumer confidence surveys, GDP growth, and unemployment rates in various countries.
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest in your bright future without hassle. For more reports: https://evernomics.com/</
SVET Markets Weekly Update – August 26–30th, 2024
On Week 35, stock markets began to show signs of a slowing uptrend. The Fed’s favored inflation indicator, Core PCE prices, increased at a slower pace. Globally, the dollar weakened to a 13-month low after Powell hinted at rate cuts. Gold hit a new record high as investors bet on Fed monetary easing. In the crypto markets, BTC and ETH remained within their month-old ranges of around 60K and 2.5K as political uncertainties continued to haunt investors. Additionally, the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov in France sparked a worldwide discussion on digital rights.
Monday
On Monday, stocks were mixed, with the Dow hitting a record high while tech stocks fell. Investors anticipated rate cuts and focused on Nvidia’s earnings. Durable goods orders rebounded to a four-year high. Internationally, the dollar hit its yearly low as gold and oil surged following Powell’s dovish comments and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. BTC and ETH declined slightly after hitting their 200-day moving average.
Details
Manufacturing orders rebounded strongly (+9.9%, the most in 4 years) in July, driven by transportation equipment including defense aircraft. Overall orders excluding transportation declined slightly. The data challenges recent pessimism about the manufacturing sector.
Crypto
The arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov in France has sparked a worldwide discussion on digital rights, with some criticizing it as an attack on free speech and privacy. Prominent figures have condemned the action, prompting Macron to deny personal involvement, arguing that the arrest is part of a judicial investigation, not a political decision.
World Markets
Nigeria’s economy grew faster in Q2, driven by increased oil output. Non-oil sectors also grew steadily. However, quarterly GDP was nearly flat due to a sharp decline in the previous quarter. The Ifo Business Climate index in Germany fell to its lowest level in six months in August, indicating a worsening economic outlook. Companies are more pessimistic about the current situation and future prospects.
Currencies
The dollar weakened to a 13-month low after Powell hinted at rate cuts. Markets are now expecting a 25 basis point cut in September. The euro and sterling strengthened against the dollar as central banks in Europe and Japan signaled potential rate hikes.
Commodities
Crude oil prices jumped on Monday due to Middle East tensions and expectations of lower interest rates. Rising tensions in the Middle East have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions. The Fed’s potential rate cuts have boosted market sentiment, though concerns about weak energy demand persist. Gold hit a new record high as investors bet on Fed rate cuts. Powell signaled a shift in Fed policy, emphasizing job market risks and inflation decline. Rising geopolitical tensions also supported gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, stocks traded mixed as Richmond manufacturing reached a four-year low. Tech stocks rose, led by Nvidia, KLA, Adobe, and Teradyne. Globally, the Mexican peso hit a 20-month low as investors worried about the government’s reforms. Meanwhile, BTC and ETH dropped sharply to their monthly support levels of 60K and 2.5K, respectively, as rate-cut-induced enthusiasm faded and technicals kicked in due to the absence of support from institutional traders and whales, who remain influenced by political ambivalence.
Details
The Dallas Fed’s service sector index fell in August, indicating a decline in business activity. Employment remained stable, but company outlook and input prices rose. The Richmond District Survey showed a contraction in service sector activity in August. Demand and revenue indexes fell, but the future outlook remains positive. House prices rose slightly in Q2 but slowed down in June. Higher mortgage rates and increased home inventory contributed to the slowdown.
Crypto
BlackRock is launching an Ethereum ETF on the Brazilian stock exchange. This follows the successful launch of their Bitcoin ETF earlier this year. The new ETF will trade under the ticker code ETHA39. This move further solidifies Brazil’s position as a leading market for crypto ETFs.
World Markets
German consumer confidence plummeted in September due to job insecurity, rising bankruptcies, and a weak economy. Thai car sales and production continue to decline (-21%), marking the 14th consecutive month of decrease. Tighter financing rules and economic slowdown are blamed.
Currencies
The Mexican peso is weakening due to political risks and concerns about judicial independence. Proposed constitutional reforms threaten investor sentiment, leading to capital outflows. While new tariffs on Chinese goods may benefit Mexico indirectly, other economic factors like inflation and weak retail sales continue to pressure the peso.
Comment: What’s Up With Thailand?
The Thai economy is gradually recovering, although growth remains below expectations. The Bank of Thailand has revised its GDP forecasts to 2.4% for 2023 and 3.2% for 2024. However, incorporating the Digital Wallet project could push 2024 growth to 3.8%. Tourism, previously a major economic driver, remains a concern, with tourist numbers unlikely to reach pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, household debt and low inflation continue to challenge consumer purchasing power.
Wednesday
On Wednesday, stocks fell on technical factors despite Nvidia’s strong earnings report. Notable movers included Nordstrom and Ambarella. Internationally, France’s unemployment rate fell sharply in July as a result of the Olympic Games. BTC and ETH struggled to retain their $60K and $2.5K levels due to low demand as the August vacation period kicks in.
Details
Mortgage applications rose slightly the previous week, following a sharp decline. This increase is attributed to lower interest rates. Applications for new home purchases rose, while refinancing applications declined slightly.
Crypto
The Ethereum Foundation’s spending is divided between internal (38%) and external initiatives (68%). Most of the budget goes to external projects, including new organizations. This spending has raised questions about the foundation’s transparency and alignment with its mission.
World Markets
France’s unemployment rate fell sharply in July, indicating a tight labor market. However, compared to a year ago, unemployment rose slightly. Russia’s unemployment rate remained at a record low of 2.4% in July, reflecting a labor force crisis caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine. At the same time, Russia’s monthly GDP growth rose to 3.4% in July from 3% in June, marking the highest growth rate since May 2021.
Currencies
The Brazilian real weakened as the dollar strengthened on growth signals. Inflation in Brazil rose slightly, fueling expectations for a rate hike. The central bank remains committed to its inflation target despite some improvement in inflation data.
Comment: What’s Up With Brazil?
Brazil’s economic trajectory over the past decades serves as a cautionary tale about the limitations of government interventions in stimulating sustainable growth. Despite various attempts at state-led economic policies, Brazil has struggled to achieve consistent long-term economic expansion. The country’s experience highlights the challenges of relying on government-driven growth strategies when fundamental market demand is weak, especially in key sectors like agriculture, which has been affected by fluctuations in Chinese demand.
Thursday
On Thursday, stocks closed mixed, with the Dow hitting a new record but the Nasdaq falling slightly, while data showed unexpected GDP growth. Nvidia’s stock dropped after its earnings missed high expectations, raising concerns about the AI boom. Globally, the economic outlook in the Eurozone improved slightly. BTC and ETH remained stuck at $60K and $2.5K in the absence of drivers.
Details
The economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter (+3% vs 2.8%), primarily due to increased consumer spending. Pending home sales unexpectedly fell by 5.5% in July, reversing June’s gains. Initial unemployment claims decreased slightly, but remain elevated compared to earlier this year.
Crypto
Australia has seen a surge in BTC ATMs (1200), now ranking third worldwide. This growth raises concerns about potential criminal activity like money laundering and scams. Strict local banking rules and a prevalent gambling culture contribute to the increasing demand for BTC ATMs in Australia.
World Markets
South Africa’s annual producer price inflation decreased to 4.2% in July. The economic outlook in the Eurozone brightened in August, with the sentiment indicator reaching its highest point in over a year.
Currencies
The Brazilian real fell past 5.6 against the dollar as concerns over President Lula’s central bank nominee and rising inflation pressures increased. The US economy’s stronger-than-expected growth also strengthened the dollar.
Comment: What’s Up With South Africa?
South Africa’s economic trajectory since the 2000s presents a stark example of resource-driven growth failing to translate into broad-based prosperity. Despite periods of record GDP growth fueled by natural resource extraction, the country has experienced a troubling divergence between economic expansion and employment creation. This disconnect is further highlighted by the stock market’s tenfold increase since 2000 and low inflation rates. Such trends point to a deeply unequal distribution of wealth, where profits from resource extraction are not reinvested into job-creating businesses within the country.
Friday
On Friday, stocks closed August with gains as the PCE price index matched expectations. The Dow reached a new all-time high (ATH). Dell’s earnings boosted its stock, while Intel surged on restructuring news. Internationally, the unemployment rate in the Euro Area reached 6.4%, the lowest level since 1995. BTC and ETH continued to significantly underperform the stock market, forming bearish patterns as traders remained ambivalent about both economic and political conditions. Meanwhile, Q2 saw a 2.5% increase in venture capital funding for crypto startups.
Details
The core PCE price index, the Fed’s favored inflation indicator, increased 0.2% in July, matching expectations and June’s rise. Year-over-year, core PCE inflation was 2.6%, below forecasts, suggesting the Fed may start lowering interest rates soon.
World Markets
The Eurozone’s inflation rate dropped to 2.2% in August 2024, down from 2.6% in July. This is the lowest rate since 2021. While this is good news for the European Central Bank, inflation remains above its target. Energy prices fell significantly, but inflation for services and food increased.
Currencies
The Euro weakened against the Dollar, reaching a two-week low of 1.108. This was due to lower-than-expected inflation data in the Eurozone, which increased the likelihood of a European Central Bank interest rate cut on September 12. Inflation rates fell in all major Eurozone economies.
Commodities
Oil prices fell to $73.5 due to OPEC+ plans to increase oil production and weaker-than-expected Chinese demand. Despite recent supply disruptions, OPEC+ is expected to proceed with its planned output hike. Oil inventories are at their lowest since January, but demand remains weak, causing price forecasts to be lowered.
On Week 36, some key economic indicators will be released, including the August unemployment rate, ISM Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final, Balance of Trade, and JOLTs Job Openings data. Internationally, the Eurozone will release retail sales, Manufacturing PMI, and GDP growth rate. China’s Caixin Services PMI will also be published.
Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest in your bright future without hassle. For more reports: https://evernomics.com/
SVET Markets Weekly Update (August 19–23, 2024)
On Week 16, data revealed weaker job growth, indicating a cooling labor market. Following Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole confirmed expectations for an interest rate cut in September and fueled a market rally.
Monday
On Monday, stocks maintained their upward trend, capitalizing on the previous week’s gains and adding over $3 trillion in value from this month’s lows. The S&P and Nasdaq marked their eighth consecutive day of gains. Investor optimism is high ahead of a key speech by Powell. Globally, the euro, yen, and British pound are up sharply as the dollar dropped to its eight-month low on renewed hopes for Fed cuts. Gold is at its highs as geopolitics remain tense. Meanwhile, BTC and ETH are stuck under $60K and $2.6K amid political uncertainties.
Crypto
The Wisconsin Investment Board recently revealed significant investments in BTC ETF in a filing with the SEC. It now holds about $100 million in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, increasing its shares from approximately 2.45 million in May to about 2.9 million as of June 30. Notably, it no longer holds shares in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which it had previously invested in.
World Markets
Malaysian economy continues to grow. Malaysia’s imports surged 25.4% in July, hitting a record high. Strong domestic demand drove growth across sectors, especially manufacturing and agriculture. Imports from major partners like China and the US increased, while those from Saudi Arabia declined.
Thailand’s economy grew by 2.3% YoY — faster than expected in Q2, driven by exports and increased government spending. While private consumption slowed due to high costs, industrial output rebounded.
Currencies
The dollar is falling to its eight-month low, as investors bet on Fed rate cuts. Weak economic data and recession fears are driving the decline. The yen, Aussie, and kiwi are gaining ground against the dollar. Markets await Fed Chair Powell’s speech for further clues on interest rates.
Commodities
Gold holds near its record high amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. Investors seek safe haven as US-Middle East conflict escalates and Ukraine-Russia tensions rise. The market expects Fed rate cuts but awaits Powell’s speech for clarity.
Oil market continued to oscillate between a deteriorating world economy and rising Middle East tensions. Prices plunged over 2% as ceasefire talks in Gaza and weak Chinese demand weigh on the market. Secretary of State Blinken is pushing for a ceasefire to ease geopolitical tensions. OPEC and IEA cut demand forecasts, adding pressure to oil prices.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, stocks fell after breaking a 20-year record streak of higher highs, as investors await clues from the Fed regarding rate cuts. Tech and consumer stocks led the gains, while energy and materials declined. Internationally, inflation in the Eurozone rose unexpectedly, and gold reached a new ATH as global investors face increased economic and political risks. BTC and ETH remain unchanged, staying within their ranges of $59K-$60K and $2.5K-$2.6K, respectively.
World Markets
Eurozone inflation rose to 2.6% in July, exceeding expectations. Energy and non-energy industrial goods prices surged, while food inflation eased slightly. Core inflation held steady at 2.9%. France and Germany saw higher inflation compared to Italy.
China kept interest rates unchanged, despite earlier cuts. The central bank is shifting focus from quantitative targets to interest rate tools to stimulate the economy.
Commodities
Gold prices hit a new record high as investors anticipate interest rate cuts from major central banks. Slower inflation fuels expectations of Fed rate reductions, while other central banks, including the ECB, BoE, and Riksbank, also signal easing monetary policy. Global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions boost gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Oil prices steadied after a sharp drop, driven by hopes for a Middle East ceasefire and rising Libyan production. However, concerns about China’s economy and potential US interest rate cuts are weighing on prices.
Wednesday
On Wednesday, stock growth slowed as prices edged toward a key resistance level and investors weighed economic data and expectations for Fed rate cuts. The BLS revised down job growth numbers, adding to concerns about a softer labor market. The Fed is likely to cut rates in September and potentially more this year. Globally, oil dropped to six-month lows due to a weakening economy, while gold reached a new ATH on the growing probability of rate cuts around the world. BTC and ETH attempted to break out of a descending wedge formation but remained constrained at roughly the same monthly levels.
Details
Recent data shows job growth was weaker than previously reported, with 818K fewer jobs added, suggesting a cooling job market. July’s job numbers were also disappointing, further indicating a slowdown in the economy.
The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 6.50%, the lowest in over a year. This marks a 32-basis point drop in four weeks and an 81-basis point decline compared to a year ago.
World Markets
Argentina’s economy shrank in June, with sharp declines in utilities, construction, and manufacturing. Growth slowed in other sectors. This marks the second-worst contraction of the year.
Japan’s exports rose to a 7-month high in July, driven by cars, machinery, and electronics. Growth accelerated to 10.3% but missed forecasts. Exports to major markets like China and the US increased, while those to Thailand, Germany, and Russia declined.
Currencies
The dollar fell to its lowest point in 2024 after the Fed hinted at a possible rate cut. Weaker US job data and a stronger Euro, Pound, and Yen contributed to the dollar’s decline.
Commodities
Oil prices fell as investors reacted to Fed rate cut expectations and weaker-than-expected job growth. Lower oil inventories couldn’
Similar to Notcoin - Blum - Airdrops In 2024
Emerald Crypto (EMD) íà Currencies.ru
|