As the U.S. presidential election nears, crypto prediction platform Polymarket has been in the spotlight, with coverage from the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, who have implied its markets are being manipulated in favour of Trump.

Source: NYT

Founder Shayne Coplan insists the platform is anything but political. “Polymarket was never meant to be a political website, and that still holds true,” Coplan clarified in an Oct. 25 post on X. “Polymarket is not about politics. The vision never was to be a political website, and it still isn’t. From launch day, the goal has been to, “harness the power of free markets to demystify the real world events that matter most to you. This US election cycle, we’ve been pulled onto center stage, as people are fed up with having to make sense of ‘For You’ feeds, pundits, and incongruent polls – we take that responsibility seriously. Polymarket’s rise in popularity correlates with correctly forecasting Biden dropping out – it was the one source that called it. Hopefully politics is the first step to get the masses to realize the value of market-based forecasts.”

Addressing speculation that Polymarket has political leanings, Coplan debunked the idea, calling the platform’s team “market nerds” rather than political operatives. “It’s not as thrilling as it sounds—we’re just passionate about using prediction markets to offer a fresh, unbiased data source,” he explained. “Polymarket is strictly non-partisan. We get told we’re Dem operatives and MAGA, depending on the day. Unfortunately the story is much less juicy, we’re just market nerds who think prediction markets provide the public with a much needed alternative data source. It’s naturally a fit in a world where there are infinite opinions being served to you algorithmically based on what you already think, designed only to keep you engaged and push you further into an echo chamber. If just one thing, Polymarket is a reality check.”

With the election drawing closer, Coplan acknowledged that Polymarket is naturally capturing more attention, especially from voters frustrated by confusing punditry and conflicting polls, “The beauty of Polymarket is it’s all peer-to-peer and transparent. Even more transparent than traditional finance, where all the data is obfuscated and only visible to the operator. That’s why everyone is able to audit all the usage – which is a good thing for free markets. A feature, not a bug. 

The market sets the price, not the operator. There is no “house” setting the odds. It’s the invisible hand, not the thumb on the scale. The idea is if people disagree with the market price, they have the opportunity to capitalize by buying the side they think is priced too low. As these markets get more popular, liquid, and accessible, we foresee a world where markets guide decision making, and opinions are backed by capital. The downstream effect is an information landscape with less sensationalism and more truth. Onwards.”

As of today, Trump has a commanding lead on Polymarket, 64.5% likely to win the election

Source: Polymarket

There is a 70% chance of a new all-time high for Bitcoin in 2024

Source: Polymarket

And GPT5 most likely won’t be announced until next year.

Source: Polymarket

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