A crypto analyst has predicted when Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, will bottom against Bitcoin, however, under certain conditions. 

In a recent X (formerly Twitter) post, crypto analyst and founder of ITC Crypto, Benjamin Cowen, shared his forecast regarding the Ethereum to Bitcoin price ratio, projecting the timeline for when ETH/BTC would hit its lowest value in the current market cycle. 

Sharing insights on the market conditions, Cowen noted striking similarities between the present market’s dynamics and the one seen in 2019. He disclosed that ETH/BTC’s recent bounce mirrored the market’s behavior in 2019, two months before the Federal Reserve (FED) cut down rates. 

Cowen predicts that the ETH/BTC ratio will reach the lowest point in its price cycle when the FED makes a significant change in its monetary policy, often referred to as a “pivot.” The crypto expert expects this pivot to occur in a few months, ultimately suggesting that Ethereum would bottom against Bitcoin in the coming months. 

His analysis is also based on the assumption that macroeconomic conditions and the FED’s monetary policies can significantly impact the cryptocurrency market. Sharing a price chart of Ethereum against Bitcoin in another post, Cowen projected that the ETH/BTC ratio will head towards a range of 0.03 and 0.04 by summer. 

Commenting on his prediction of ETH/BTC’s bottom, a crypto community member expressed skepticism about the FED’s likelihood of cutting down rates while inflation was still high. Cowen responded that the absence of a rate cut further reinforced his beliefs that the ETH/BTC ratio has not yet reached its lowest point. He suggests that unless inflationary pressures are addressed, the ETH/BTC ratio may continue on its downward trend. 

In another post, Cowen referred to Ethereum as a higher-risk asset and Bitcoin as a lower-risk asset. The crypto analyst’s forecast on Ethereum against Bitcoin is underpinned by his interpretation of capital migration dynamics, suggesting that higher-risk assets typically depreciate relative to lower-risk assets.

He highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the future market movements of ETH/BTC following the halving event. Cowen predicted that if ETH/BTC witnesses a “relief rebound” after the halving, then he expects a rejection by the bull market support band, particularly in the context of weekly closing prices, estimated to range between $0.053 to $0.054. 

While acknowledging his past successes in predicting ETH/BTC price movements, Cowen highlighted that his predictions remain speculative, stating, “Just because I have been right so far about ETH/BTC does not mean I will continue being right.”

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