2018-11-4 14:24 |
CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, took to his Twitter page to release a new projection in regard to Bitcoin [BTC]’s price. Turns out, analysts are suggesting a bear market to come in which the giant is said to drop to the $2,000 to $3,000 ranges.
Check out the new hotness. The latest Crypto Trader Digest just dropped. https://t.co/h2YrqcUafF
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 2, 2018
The report dubbed, “From the BitMEX Research Desk,” provided different analyses, some of which include that of Ethereum, Bitmain’s IPO, the notion of stablecoins and their pros and cons, and of course what’s to come for Bitcoin.
The part of the report devoted to Bitcoin has been titled, “Bear Market Blues,” and it more or less bashes how trends are typically analyzed, and the predictions that come out of them.
Some of the arguments that were made in the beginning, without proper evidence to support them, went as follows:
“Humans are very bad forecasters. We take yesterday’s returns and extrapolate them linear and non-linearly into the future. […] 2017 was the year of jubilation; 2018 is the year of melancholy. The worst part is knowing your 2018 bonus, should you receive one, will barely buy you a Swatch.”
Diving into more of the statistics aspects of things, a table consisting of the Peak-to-Trough Method and Intra-Market Phase Method have been provided and it looks as follows:
Source: BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest
The Peak-to-Trough Method divides the low of a bear by a high of the bull. Based on three bear market declines witnessed, the argument made is that there’s still room for more of decline (as its lowest so far only hit 67%), that is, Bitcoin’s lowest point is not in the $6,000 ranges.
To conclude the findings, Hayes seems to be agreeing with the analysts, who have pinpointed Bitcoin’s price volatility as being a factor that could also support a possible $2,000 to $3,000 BTC price range.
BitMEX analysts have also noted “The Double Whammy”, which depicts bitcoin volatility and price collapse in 2018. Hayes writes that price volatility is a good thing, as the price is an important indicator, whether it be good or bad. He seems to back this statement by influence on sentiment, as news coverage on BTC would otherwise not exist if prices remained stable.
Getting back to the Double Whammy, Bitcoin’s volatility (BVOL) at November 1st was affirmed to being 23.5%. This was followed by the fact that previous BVOLs were all greater than 23.5% – implying that the current rate is significantly low and was not witnessed since December 2016. All this combined led the CEO to hold strong on “his new sweet spot” of a $2,000 low.
Interestingly, many took his Twitter post to express disbelief in the findings provided. Here are some of the responses to what was found by BitMEX:
@ECryptomius,
“Such smart logic by Arthur. When he knows it’s a bear market, he says 50K incoming. When he knows it’s a bull market, he says 2K incoming. Line those pockets Arthur!! I’m really hoping everyone sees through this, but you never know.”
@JamesDean190001,
“Arthur the scammer just wants more shorts to build up, he has his own best interest at heart.”
@SimenAndre83,
“We won’t see a 2k Bitcoin. Just BS. Same as I said BS on a 50k Bitcoin earlier this year. He just comes with unrealistic predictions either way to gain attention for him and his exchange. He very well knows that he won’t get any coverage with an 8k Bitcoin prediction.”
Do you think Hayes is taking advantage of the bear market, or are BitMEX analysts’ findings enough to assume that Bitcoin’s price will drop soon? Let us know your reasons in the comments below.
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