Reports claiming Costco issued a fresh recession warning have racked up a lot of chatter this weekend, but the quoted comments from former CFO Richard Galanti actually date back to a 2023 earnings call.

Galanti made the comments during Costco’s May 2023 third-quarter earnings call. He flagged a shift away from beef toward cheaper proteins, such as canned chicken and tuna. He tied the pattern to past slowdowns in 1999, 2000, and 2008 through 2010.

Galanti stepped down as CFO in March 2024 after roughly four decades at the company. Gary Millerchip has held the role since then, and his recent earnings calls have not flagged a similar warning.

Costco management has described member spending as relatively consistent through the Q1 and Q2 fiscal 2026 calls.

Higher-priced meat cuts have outpaced cheaper proteins in growth, which contradicts the trade-down framing spreading on social media.

Costco just flagged a major shift in shopper behavior:

The world’s largest warehouse club is seeing customers buy less beef and premium items, while loading up on more chicken, canned tuna, canned chicken, and cheaper Kirkland Signature store brands.

Costco’s leadership says… pic.twitter.com/CFKVK7T3jS

Beef prices in the United States sit at record highs. Ground beef averaged about $6.70 per pound in March 2026. Live cattle traded near $2.58 per pound during the same month.

The US cattle herd has fallen to a 75-year low after sustained drought and rising feed costs. President Donald Trump delayed an executive order this month. It would have eased beef-import limits to reduce prices.

The Trump administration has delayed a plan to suspend tariffs on beef imports, which had been part of its latest push to assuage Americans’ concerns about high consumer prices https://t.co/UxqoQe2bXn

That backdrop makes a recycled 2023 clip feel current, even when the underlying data has shifted.

The pattern echoes another viral macro signal that resurfaced recently. US cardboard box production fell more than 8% in the first quarter of 2026. Drops at that scale have historically preceded a US recession.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs lifted its 12-month US recession probability to 30% in March. The bank cited oil shocks and tighter financial conditions.

RECESSION RISKS RISE AS WAR HITS U.S. ECONOMY

Wall Street is raising recession risks as the Iran war pushes up oil prices and weakens the outlook.

Goldman Sachs now sees a 30% recession risk, with inflation near 3% and unemployment rising to 4.6% by 2026. Higher fuel costs—gas… pic.twitter.com/oEty7bNcDu

Polymarket odds for a US recession by year-end sit near 23%. That level sits well below the panic readings logged earlier this year.

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The post Costco ‘Recession Signal’ Goes Viral as Old CFO Remarks Resurface On Record Beef Prices appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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