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Prediction markets correctly picked Minnesota’s major primary winners, including progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Republican Senate nominee Michele Tafoya, rebounding after a messier night in Wisconsin.
Francesca Hong entered Wisconsin’s Democratic governor primary trading at 96% on prediction markets. She lost anyway. David Crowley’s narrow upset is the sharpest rebuke yet to the idea that the 2026 progressive wave is unstoppable — and it gives centrist Democrats the nominee they argued would be better positioned in a purple-state general election against Republican Tom Tiffany.
The New York City Council has opened an investigation into the marketing practices of four prediction market platforms, including Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase and Gemini Titan, over allegations that event-contract firms may use deceptive advertising to attract consumers. The office of…
Francesca Hong is trading at 95% to win Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary on Kalshi and 96% on Polymarket, putting her at the front of another progressive-wave test Tuesday. But markets have already flipped to Republicans in November, with the GOP at 62% on Kalshi, underscoring the harder question: whether a progressive primary win can hold up in one of the country’s most volatile purple states.
Republicans remain slight favorites to hold the Senate in the headline market, but the state-by-state picture is moving in Democrats’ direction. Kalshi gives the GOP a 54% chance to keep control, down from roughly 60% in early July, while markets now put Democrats ahead in Michigan, Alaska, Ohio and tied in Texas.
Prediction markets rebound as trading tops $10 billion, with Kalshi leading the surge and a growth in political markets driving activity. The post Prediction Market Volume Rebounds Above $10 Billion as Politics Surges Ahead of NFL Season appeared first on DeFi Rate.
Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan heads into Tuesday’s Minnesota Democratic Senate primary as the prediction-market favorite, trading at 72% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. But with the latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll showing Angie Craig ahead by two points, Minnesota is shaping up as another close test of whether the progressive wave can keep delivering after Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed narrowly escaped a race traders had called a near-lock.