Can Arbitrum (ARB) Hold $1.10 Support Amid $1.5 Million Exploit? 

2023-7-13 20:00

Arbitrum (ARB) price is currently precariously trading above the $1.10 support level after another exploit incident this week. Can ARB price shake off the market FUD and hold the $1.10 support level? 

This week, Rodeo Finance, a DeFi Yield-Farming protocol built on the Arbitrum network, suffered a $1.5 million exploit. Arbitrum (ARB) price has held the $1.10 support level since blockchain intelligence platform, Peckshield confirmed the hack on July 11. 

New Users Could Help Maintain the Current ARB Support Level

Despite the FUD surrounding the recent exploit, Arbitrum has attracted many new users this week. According to data compiled by Santiment, ARB Network Growth surged 40% from 2,585 to 3,631 new wallet addresses between July 5 and July 13. 

Arbitrum (ARB) Support  | Network Growth, July 2023 | Source: Santiment

Network Growth tracks the number of new wallet addresses created on a blockchain network. This estimates the ecosystem’s new-user acquisition rate. When it rises, it suggests that the underlying token will likely attract new demand in the near future. 

The 40% surge in Network Growth suggests that the FUD surrounding Rodeo Finance has not spread over to ARB. If this condition holds true in the coming days, then ARB will likely hold the $1.10 support level. 

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The Market FUD Has Not Impacted ARB Negatively

The current uptrend in Weighted Sentiment further confirms that the Rodeo Finance FUD is unlikely to affect Arbitrum price. 

As shown below, ARB Weighted Sentiment currently sits in the neutral zone around -0.26. This is a positive improvement when compared to the -0.32 score recorded on July 5. 

Arbitrum (ARB) Support  | Weighted Sentiment, July 2023 | Source: Santiment

Weighted Sentiment measures the number of positive social media opinions against the negatives to evaluate real-time changes in stakeholders’ general opinions about an asset. 

The chart above illustrates that Arbitrum stakeholders have expressed more positive opinions in the last few days. This suggests that the Rodeo Finance FUD has not made a dent in the market sentiment surrounding ARB. 

In conclusion, Arbirtrum’s growing user acquisition rate and the uptrend in Weighted Sentiment mean that it will likely hold the $1.10 price support level. 

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ARB Price Prediction: The Bulls Could Push For $1.20

ARB on-chain data currently flashes bullish signals suggesting a potential rally toward the $1.20 mark. 

This view is corroborated by the MVRV ratio, which gauges the net financial position of current ARB holders. The chart below shows that the majority of investors that bought ARB in the last 30 days are holding 2% profits

Given the positive market sentiment, most of them will likely hold off until profits rise to 5%, around $1.15, before they start selling. 

However, if ARB exceeds that sell wall, the next significant resistance zone could be $1.20. 

Arbitrum (ARB) Price Prediction |  MVRV ratio, July 2023. Source: Santiment

Still, the bears could put up a fight if they can force a downsizing toward $1. However, the bullish investors could intensify the buying pressure to keep the price above $1.10 and avoid slipping into a net-loss position.

However, if they do not have enough in the tank, ARB price stands the risk of slipping toward $1.

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