Bitcoin trades north of the $32,000 levels as the bulls regain some conviction in the daily chart. The general sentiment in the market seems more bullish, but many still warn caution until BTC’s price moves higher to a safer zone.

Bitcoin’s recent price action has left many in the dark, wondering about its next direction. Uncertainty reigns supreme. At this point, experts have been comparing different Bitcoin bull and bear periods to grasp an idea about its future.

In lower timeframes, most seem to lean with the bears. Thus, they bet on more downside for the short term. Trader Josh Rager warn bears about BTC’s price capacity to drive short squeezes even in its worst times.

In late 2017, after reaching an all-time high of $20,000, Bitcoin went on a downtrend, but similar to its current price action, the cryptocurrency made 50% and 100% rallies “on the way down”, as Rager said while adding:

You’re in a bear market until proven otherwise. It means long term downtrend, A downtrend that has been happening for 4 months now.

Pseudonym trader Daan Crypto has an opposite bias. This trader also compared Bitcoin with other cycles and believes this and other cryptocurrencies are not in a long bear market, but at a key moment of the bullish cycle.

I personally do think the current cycle is not done yet and that we will see us move to new highs later this year which we’ll likely hit around Q1 2022 if I had to guess.

Daan Crypto argued that the 4 Bitcoin past cycle can be divided into those with smaller corrections and a grind up towards new highs, as seen below.

The current cycle could be more explosive with a big peak at the middle, Bitcoin’s last all-time high at $64,000, and a few months of “bear market”. After this period, the cryptocurrency should recover and made its way back to previous and new highs by the end of the year.

(…) where we do see a huge correction, after which price starts to recover and sets a new high about 4-5 months later. After that it continues for a while, until it sets the cycle high and really starts the bigger bear market.

According to this prediction by December 2021, the crypto market should show signs of recovery, if it manages to break away from this “short bear period”, as the trader called.

The trader also believes that Bitcoin and its cycles dynamic could be changing. Eventually, traders and investors could see longer cycles with fewer returns.

This could be a consequence of the new capital coming into the market, its maturation, and the amount of time required to move the price around its new volumes. As evidence, Daan Crypto said:

Compare the now $1T+ market cap to the crypto market cap 10 years ago. Good luck trying to buy $1M of Bitcoin back then. While nowadays, this wouldn’t even move the market by more than a few dollars.

The trader did clarify that it’s impossible to be 100% certain on the times in BTC’s price cycles. In addition, he doesn’t rule out the possibility that Bitcoin stays in the lows for the remainder of the year.  

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