2021-6-3 12:56 |
There’s a tradition of Bitcoiners anticipating the next price level and using adoption rates to predict where prices are headed. Last year, analysts predicted $20,000, a long-awaited price mark that Bitcoin almost surpassed in 2017.
However, Bitcoin would hit $20,000 as predicted, but go on to outperform in the following month by tripling that price mark very quickly. As excited as the market was for the newly attained milestone, some market participants still observed the speed at which Bitcoin moved, branding it as an unexpected market blessing.
However, at Bitcoin’s current pace, some analysts ultimately see it as a curse for the bull market. Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments is of the opinion that the Bitcoin rally may have taken off too quickly.
Having observed the market as a long-time technical analyst, Timmer Shares his take on Bitcoin’s recent price action. Timmer noticed that a “5-wave decline may be unfolding,” following Bitcoin’s recent peak at an all-time high of $64,870.
Elliott Wave Theory: Looking at the chart pattern since the recent high of 64,870, I can't help but notice that a textbook 5-wave decline may be unfolding. According to EWT, primary trends move in 5 waves and corrections are 3 waves. /2
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 1, 2021The typical progression is that wave 1 is generally dismissed as noise, then wave 2 is a sharp and deep retracement of wave 1 (at least 62% but sometimes 75% or more), which creates the false comfort that it was indeed just a minor correction. /3
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 1, 2021After the first two waves, Timmer explained above, the third wave, which is also classified as the biggest one is prone to follow suit. Then the 4th and 5th will arrive at the market, with the latter often equaling the 1st wave.
When the Elliott Wave pattern is applied to the current Bitcoin market, the movement of wave 1 to wave 3 encapsulates Bitcoin’s price from $64,870 to the $30,000 low.
BTCUSD Chart By TradingViewIn the tweets below, the analyst explains what he believes to be the 4th and 5th wave, adding in a preceding tweet that the next incoming low will be closer to $30,000 than $23,000 as JPMorgan just predicted.
So far the recovery from the wave 3 low looks like a 4th wave zigzag retracing 37% of wave 3. In other words, everything about this wave pattern so far appears to be textbook, which suggests that a wave 5 decline could still lie ahead. /7
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 1, 2021If wave 5 = wave 1, it projects down to 23,076 as a final low. If it's only 0.618x wave 1, we may only slightly undercut the current low and bottom at 29,872. So to me that’s the range of outcomes for a potential 5th wave sequence. /8
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 1, 2021Before the market sustains recovery, he agrees that there could see the more down leg. Explaining how Bitcoin’s speedy move impacted these stances, he said:
“Don’t get me wrong: I remain a secular bull, but according to my version of the S2F model & S-Curve model (& the analog of gold during the 1970s), the trip to 64k was a bit too much too fast, prematurely reaching my year-end target of 68k in April.”
In a concluding tweet, he asserts that the sustainability of a bull market depends on how hard the “trees get shaken occasionally”, adding that he strongly believes the market is currently at that point.
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