Bitcoin price has gone back to the level before the jump it saw yesterday after Donald Trump alleviated Middle East worries.

War cancelled, dump it.$BTC

— Hsaka (@HsakaTrades) January 8, 2020

From $8,460 level, we have fallen 5.25% to $7,850 as per Coincodex while managing the daily trading volume of $1.34 billion, which is still high.

As veteran trader Peter Brandt explained there have been a number of bullish factors supporting the market with marketable to hold support at the lower boundary of the multi-year channel, small H&S bottom on the daily chart, and pending penetration of over six months channel.

But as he pointed out, “if enough crypto-cultists have been shaken out since Dec '17,” only then a new bull market has begun in BTC otherwise the answer is no.

Now that the euphoria has ended, it’s safe to say it wasn’t the start of a new bull market.

Brandt, in fact, previously called out for $5,400 in July, a few weeks after the Bitcoin halving in May.

Just like Brandt, analyst Jacob Canfield also forecasts BTC’s fall to $5,500 in Q1 of 2020. In his latest “crazy” analysis which he says is “very compelling,” Bitcoin could go down to $4,888 in late June.

“Is it possible Bitcoin hasn't bottomed? This is a bit of a crazy analysis, but I think it's worth keeping your mind open to all possibilities. While I was bullish from the $6800/$6900 levels, I see a similarity between 2018 and now,” said Canfield.

According to his long term analysis that will take months to play out, we can see one more high to around $9,000. However, if BTC closes above $10,000 and the daily 20MA, the scenario will invalidate itself.

The analysis is crazy because Canfield says we have a halving coming up and everyone thinks around the event the price will increase significantly and his analysis is the opposite of that.

However, not everyone is in favor of a bullish havling. Many commentators actually believe, that this time halving will not only be a non-event but it could also result in the prices of digital assets falling.

In comparison to the past halving, the first event on Nov. 28th, 2012, BTC price dropped 30% in the months leading up to the halving. But post-halving prices surged massively.

On the second time around, before the halving, BTC dropped 27% and the same after it hit the 200 MA daily.

“What this means is that it's possible we see a drop prior to the halving. Both prior had 28% drops,” said the analyst.

The critical point here is 200MA, Canfield says even if price pumps up to $9,950, we would still be on pace for this analysis. But a daily close above the 200MA and $10,000 to make a higher high will be that would “invalidate” the structure.

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